0:00 [Music] who are you and where are you going what do you [Music] want hello and welcome to people making money I'm your host Kevin bamel and we're here every Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time to talk about basically the whole range of issues um of our personal I mean our
0:37 business professional and and financial lives so job hunting starting a business wealth building all of those topics and and and things related to it like um how to build uh effective relationships Etc so uh today is our monthly uh economic Echo Show the state of capital Y are your economy and it's it's when we take a look at the various economic factors and see what they mean
1:12 about what they mean in our own lives um because none of us you lives at the national or lives according to the National economy per se right we all live in in a some kind of local area and and how the and the state of the economy of that local area uh varies uh in almost all cases from that of the entire nation and in fact the economy of the entire country is really the aggregate of all these local areas right that's
1:47 that's how those statistics are compiled so uh you know how you experience inflation is different uh in most cases than how I do uh unemployment all of these factors so it's always a a busy show because there's lots lots of data to cover uh so I'm going to jump right into it we always start out with the Consumer Price Index um and and in this and we're going to look at the uh National Consumer Price Index first and
2:23 you you see that okay here we go okay so the CPI for all items raised or went up 0.4% uh in in in December okay and and um um overall um year over-year um these are uh seasonally adjusted it Rose 2.9% um uh I'm sorry it it Rose 4% in December seasonally adjusted um
2:59 year-over-year it Rose 2.9% um not seasonally adjusted now the index for all items excluding food and energy which tend to be the the more vol most volatile is 3.2% this is well above the Federal reserve's target of 2% and you will see we'll see how this plays into expectations and such um a little bit later on in the show so let's drill down now uh oops okay
3:35 so that's funny okay all right so um food went up two and a half percent uh energy went down a half a percent. so let's look at food and you can see that food at home went up 1.8% food away from home went up 3.6% so restaurants in particular are raising prices now um if you know following the business news um there have been some um bankruptcy filings in restaurants TGI Fridays Etc uh consumers are really
4:11 starting to resist paying the higher away from home food prices I know I've essentially given up uh eating outside of of my home um not not necessarily for because of the cost although that's a factor a lot of it has to do with the you know most restaurant food is not as healthy as what I can make at home um and and and I I've been focused on uh improving my diet and eating very modest meals so um okay and then you can see in
4:47 both categories uh full service meals and snacks limited uh service meals and snacks went up you know for all intents and purposes uh this the same am for food at home um you can see that um the biggest increases came from uh sources of protein meat poultry fish and eggs 4.2% and nonalcoholic beverages went up 2.3% that's as a as um uh contrasted with uh uh fruits and vegetables went
5:24 went up only 1% dairy products 1.3 cereals and other food products eight 8% and then other things8 so just you know looking at my diet so the cost of the food I buy went up about 1% I don't buy a lot of um uh protein uh of these types of protein products um I I eat a little bit of fish and and and some eggs each each week but that's all um and um non-alcoholic beverages I I you know I
5:59 drink water so right so you know again if if you eat a meat heavy diet it's likely that you experienced inflation at a higher rate than the national average because uh you know the cost of of meat poultry went up over 4 per. okay energy went down a half a percent energy Commodities went down almost 4% whereas Energy Services went up 3.3% so let's look at the difference between the two so fuel oil went down over
6:34 133% gasoline went down 3.4% so that's that's uh what are called Energy Commodities and then going back to the other side Energy Services so electricity went up 2.8% natural gas 4.9% so for me uh I don't drive very much I don't use fuel oil at all I don't drive very much and so the my experience with energy inflation was is is likely
7:10 higher than uh what you know what is the national average and and now for if you live in the Northeast where we'll go back to this so you can see this where you know you rely on fuel oil for heating you know and and and that's a you know a sizable EXP spense so the fact that it went down so much um could mean that uh you're not feeling the pinch from inflation uh nearly as much as the national average okay all right now let's go back and let's look at all um
7:46 okay so Commodities less food and energy well declin by half a percent I mean you know essentially unchanged all items less food and Energy Services went up 4.4% % let's look at these details okay so if you use tobacco products okay those went up 6.7% time to give up smoking right um you know apparel went up a little over percent new vehicles dropped by 0.4% essentially unchanged used cars uh dropped by 3.3% but if you didn't buy a
8:23 car it did you know that had no impact on how you experienced inflation okay and this is um this is oh um Medical Care Commodities you know essentially unchanged um alcoholic beverages 1.4% again a pretty modest increase and then tobacco so uh you know again as you drill down into these you get a better feeling for uh you know how how you may have experienced inflation now by the way the the December increase of 04
9:00 4% um that's you know that's that's pretty hefty um and and and and and it it will it has an impact on um how people uh view in inflation and how people view you know future expectations okay so stop that and now we're going to go to uh consumer price index for the local area um now I I use Los Angeles that just happens to be where I'm located uh but um uh you you know you
9:38 can obviously wherever you're located you know just do a a search for uh you know inflation rate and your city and you'll get the the local uh consumer price index for me that's Long Beach Los Angeles Long Beach Anaheim if you live in you know Miami or you live in rural Nebraska it's going to be a different index but you're gonna you're going to see essentially the same information okay so um area prices in Los Angeles went up 0.2% over the over the last
10:14 month overall 3.4% from a year ago so actually local inflation in Los Angeles was lower than the national average for last month okay um but but overall the inflation rate was higher so let's let's look at some of the details now um as we look at the local rate I just want to make sure okay yeah got go want to make sure you can see it well okay so uh food prices uh Rose 3%
10:49 in December food at home went up0 4% food away from home Rose by .2% so interestingly the uh you know the infl here in California the inflation rate for eating out was you know slightly lower than than the inflation rate for for eating at home um but but not not such a big variance we would probably notice it very much uh energy okay decreased 1.4% that was due uh to uh gasoline prices dropping by
11:25 1.7% but the price for natural gas went at 5.1% and the price for electricity was unchanged so for me my energy cost went up because I don't drive very much but I do heat my house with gas and I have a gas uh range for for cooking okay and then all other prices um here we go so it went up 3.3% in December um apparel went up almost a percent shelter a half a percent uh new and used Motor Vehicles
12:00 went up 3% and these were um partially offset by household Furnishing and an operations which went down 2% so um all in all um you know the the 3% increase in December um if if we if we were to um uh shoot annualize that number we would be at 3.6% now obviously that's that's not how it works it varies month to month but um still on a local level significantly higher than uh you know
12:38 the number that the FED wants to see okay now let's let's go next to oops I passed it okay uh here we go this is the um that's interesting okay so next we're going to look at um current and uh uh current and real earnings uh for all employees I only
13:15 have this on a national basis um the the the local data doesn't get um updated very often um but one of the things you'll see real average hourly earning earnings declined slightly what that means is um on an actual on a buying power basis right buying power went down a little bit from November to December okay that was true on an hourly basis it was true on a weekly basis okay now by the way you'll notice that a um um average
13:52 weekly hours uh I'm sorry um average hourly earnings went up slightly okay um but um u i I think average hourly earnings are not adjusted for inflation and so that's why when you adjust for an inflation uh they they went down slightly and then the number of hours worked uh weekly uh average weekly hours has been pretty consistent um it's been 3 34.3 for the last several months it
14:27 was 34.4 a year ago so again very very consistent so average weekly hour uh average weekly enterings have increased but unfortunately uh inflation has increased um as well and and it it it offset it so you can see in December um average uh hourly earnings went up 3% but inflation as we talked about a moment ago went up 0 4% and that's that's why uh real uh weekly earnings went went down uh
15:02 0.1% okay that's that's just you know that's that that's the impact of inflation right and this is why this may very well be why despite you know getting a pay raise you you still feel like you're not making any ground up because that unless that pay raise is keeping Pace with inflation uh you know you're not so um that that is you know that is the reality of of you know economics okay next let's look at
15:40 the what is this okay okay so this is now this is real personal income for the states I changed this out this I used to show you this uh statistic unadjusted for inflation okay um oh I just noticed this is this is for 22 to 23 okay so this isn't going to be particularly relevant this is a real personal this is real personal income for the state so we'll have to look at this next month and see how that
16:17 changed for last you know from 23 to 24 okay so I'm going to go ahead and and skip this there was no no point in in in covering something that um we've all that we we we talked about last year okay so next let's look at the um civilian unemployment rate okay and um you can see that um over on a national basis in general the unemployment rate um over the last two
16:54 years has trended up um but over the period from August to December has essentially been flat at roughly 4.1 to 4.2% okay so let's look at men okay so um the unemployment rate for men excuse me dropped dropped to 3.7% last month from uh from uh 39% in November okay and for women
17:29 get rid of this one so I can track women okay women drop went was at 3.8% I think that was essentially okay just down slightly from 3.9% in November so you know small changes uh in terms of men and women uh and then teenagers uh 12.4% and you can see that's been a steady drop from August when it was 14.2% most recently it was it was at 13.9 so it dropped three4 of a percent basically from November to December now
18:07 presumably that was because teenagers um were hired for holiday shopping one would expect to see this uh you know return to an upswing uh for for January okay and now let's look at demographics okay so for for why the unemployment rate dropped. 2% in December from um oops Yeah from 3.8% in November okay for black Americans uh it it went from it went
18:44 down to 6.1% from 6.4% okay for asian-americans okay it also went down from three oh no I'm sorry it went yeah yeah it went went down to 3.5 from 3.8 okay and finally for um Latinos um it it oops here's Latinos okay so 5.1% in December from 5.3% in November so across all demographic groups
19:20 unemployment dropped in December that shouldn't be um surprising the holiday season the peak of the holiday season High Hing you know will typically be at its peak as as well okay so uh all right and then now let's look at this on the state level nope we I don't have the state level okay so let's look at the labor force participation rate so um a as I've talked about many times before the
19:57 unemployment rate always has to be looked at in concert with the Civil civilian labor force participation rate because the unemployment rate only measures unemployment among people who are actively looking for work so if someone decides to stop looking for work okay that will cause the unemployment rate to drop even though that person didn't find a job it's just they gave up looking for a job okay so uh labor force participation rate in
20:33 December was 62.5% and that [Music] is that's essentially on par with the last three months so um the total labor force participation rate the overall I should say labor force participation rate has been flat at 62.5% from October through December okay for for men 20 years and older it was it was at 70.2% in December flat with November okay women 20 and older but we're going
21:09 to see the same thing 58.7 uh October November December it's it's been flat which is of course why the overall rate uh is is is flat well is flat as well now for uh um teenagers 16 and 19 the labor force participation rate went up to 35.7% um from 36.3% um and at the same time the their unemployment rate rate went down which
21:44 means there was a lot of hiring of teenagers again not unusual for December teenagers are a big source of part part-time employment and so it it it makes sense that they're even as they're labor force participation rate increased the unemployment rate went down because businesses are actively hiring for the holiday season okay now let's look at this by demographics so the labor force participation rate for whites stood at 62.2% in December up just 0.1% from the
22:19 previous month uh for blacks it stood at 62.4% uh vers versus this I'm take this one out so I can see it okay uh versus 62 no I'm sorry okay so 62.4% in November 62.4% in December so it was uh it was flat which which makes sense for asian-americans okay in December 64.3
22:54 64.6 in November so it did decrease a the labor force participation rate did decrease a little bit for Asians and then finally for Latinos labor force participation rate 67.5 versus 66.9 so it went up over a half a percent in uh in in December um and again at the same time the labor force participation rate increased you recall um unemployment basically uh stayed flat
23:30 and so what that means is a lot a lot of people found jobs okay now it is interesting to note that Latinos have the highest labor force participation rate of of any demographic okay that just something to to keep in mind all right now let's next go to okay okay employment by industry uh this is this is always an interesting statistic to look at especially if you
24:08 are uh unemployed or you're considering changing employment this is showing you where job growth happened last month in December okay so you can see the biggest growth in jobs came in private education and health um almost 20 27,000 new jobs in December okay and in government um um about 23,500 new jobs okay so went up but 0.1% for government went up
24:44 3% uh I'm sorry I'm giving you the wrong figure sorry so sorry sorry okay let's let's start over again so private education and Health Services 880,000 new jobs for a 3% increase um rough 27 million people working in that sector um government okay uh 33,000 new jobs a 0.1% increase 23.5 million people working in that sector okay the other big Gainer was uh retail trade again makes sense because
25:20 of the holidays okay 43,000 new jobs a 3% increase but notice that the people who work in retail trade about 15.7 million is you know less than Le I'm sorry um slightly more than half of the number that work in education and Health Services and is only about 2third of the numbers of the people who work in government okay um the other big Gainer
25:56 was uh um professional and business services 28,000 new jobs about 0.1% and there's about 23 million jobs in those sectors okay so so the business services Business and Professional Services uh are similar size um employers to government um slightly smaller than Healthcare okay the losers Biggest Loser manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs total manufacturing employment was about 1 Million by the way there was a time about a half a century ago when
26:32 manufacturing employment would have been much much higher okay in fact we probably would have seen the reverse in terms of um professional and business services and Manufacturing okay um also declining wholesale trade lost 3500 jobs okay about 7even million jobs in that sector and Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs um about 634 th000 jobs in those sectors again logging especially used to be a much bigger business in the United
27:07 States especially in uh Northern California and and the Pacific Northwest um but those Industries have declined significantly over the last two or three decades and as a result employment has as well okay so now let's drill down where are we seeing um the biggest uh increases in private Education and healthc Care Services well um over 45,000 of the new jobs 46,000 new jobs in health care and another 23,000 in social assistance and
27:42 these are driven by government spending so it's kind of almost like their quasi government jobs because it is it is taxpayer money that um funds these these increases okay um now let's look at government okay so federal government saw uh 6,000 new jobs state governments 10,000 local government 177,000 now um uh president Trump on Monday signed an executive order freezing civilian hiring um by the
28:18 federal government so although we might see some increases in in in federal um hiring for this month current month January uary we should see that uh you know drop to it's not going to be zero but to near zero um in the coming months if indeed um you know that that um executive order is is followed okay you can see that um there was actually 8500 new job new people hired in the federal
28:53 government uh but because the Postal Service shed 3,000 jobs that's why overall it looks it looks less okay on the state government level both um uh education and other areas of state government increased hiring and I think we're going to see the same thing is true on the local level yet both local government education and local government excluding education we saw increases in hiring okay now business services so across the board we saw um hiring uh for professional scientific
29:29 and Technical Services management of companies administrative support all saw um you know in the neighborhood of nine to 10,000 uh new new jobs okay um and and you know as we look at professional scientific and Technical Services so um architectural and Engineering saw big increases um so that hopefully will bode well for construction okay management scientific um and Technical Services also increased as did others the ones that decreased were Legal Services okay so you know um attorne employment of
30:07 attorneys um and and uh Allied professionals dropping accounting was essentially unchanged specialized Design Services dropped cons computer systems design dropped as did advertising and public relations so advertising of public relations dropping that's not necessarily a good sign um because um advertising usually means businesses are gearing up to to expand okay and then let's go back here uh okay so ma oh okay that that's
30:43 it okay and then the last one retail trade so where do things they would be in the sectors you would think for December uh clothing clothing accessor shoes and jewelry big increase for the holidays or Goods musical instruments the kind of things people give for gifts makes sense general merchandise retailers again the same thing whereas Building Material garden equipment and supplies decreased um V motor vehicle and parts dealers decreased slightly right these are especially building equipment and garden supplies presumably
31:18 we're not giving those kind of things as gifts and so that's why um we saw a drop there okay and let's just see I think that's the yeah okay now in terms of job losses so in manufacturing uh manufacturing of non-durable goods actually saw an increase of 3,000 jobs but durable manufacturing of durable goods lost 16,000 jobs now um that tends to be an indicator um that going forward businesses are not as
31:54 optimistic um that people are going to be buying Big Ticket items so called durable goods things like uh appliances and that sort of thing so in terms of durable goods uh employment you can see across all sectors except for miscellaneous there were drops in particular big drops in computer and electronic products Machinery manufacturing Transportation manufacturing furniture and related okay all of them saw you know pretty sizable drops so did um wood product manufacturing okay um actually non-metallic mineral product
32:30 manufacturing went up they had a 100 job increase okay effectively you know no unchange okay but you can see durable goods across the board um essentially dropped which is of course what we see in the overall statistics now uh wholesale trade also dropped um so ages and Brokers actually increased a little bit but um Merchant whol sers of durable goods dropped and non-durable goods which makes sense because manufacturing those areas dropped okay
33:06 and then Mining and logging um so logging was essentially unchanged um but mining coring and oil and gas extraction dropped almost 3,000 jobs now again president Trump signed an executive order to as as he's been saying drill baby drill so presumably um over in the coming months we're going to see this number turn around and we're going to see higher employment in these sectors um but look there's been a lot of talk that uh that uh oil producers are are
33:44 not going to ramp up um production um it's too risky to do so but you know we we'll see how that plays out and you can see by the way across the board um there were drops in employment in terms ter of uh extraction okay and then let's see that's yeah that was okay so those are the three sectors we we looked at in terms of jobs dropping now let's let's take one more look at the 12month picture and again you can see um hiring was really
34:20 dominated by those sectors that are fueled by the government over the last year okay um and then after that there was Leisure and hospitality and and construction and Manufacturing really took the brunt of the decline um in jobs so uh you know again referring to president Trump's inaugural address on Monday um he seems bent on reshoring manufacturing so presumably we will see this Factor uh turn around um in in the
34:56 coming months and and years uh you know standby to to to to be determined right okay now let's look at oops okay so we're going to switch now to housing prices okay and this is a this is a a new one that I I haven't shown you before so um in this case I'm looking at the California housing market but you
35:31 can do this you can search here for any local that you want you can search your own Market um what this is going to show us is the median sales price for a home in California is over $800,000 an increase of 6.1% year over-year okay um the number of home sold was 2,434 a 16.4% increase year-over-year median days on Market 45 an increase of
36:07 7% so as um home prices have gone up the number of prices the number of homes sold have gone up but it's taken longer to sell them now why would the number of homes um go number of homes sold go up um even as um sales prices decline well let's look at some of these factors okay and and here we go okay so California Housing Supply okay um number of homes for sale
36:43 went up by almost 18% um and but that still only represents a two-year Supply um okay so um there were more homes for sale okay um demand for housing though um look at this homes sold above list price um 35.6 that actually decreased okay homes sold with price drops increased and so homes sailed a list price 99.5% actually a slight decrease okay so
37:20 what we're seeing here is um as prices go up here we are okay although the number of homes that are the number of homes sold has increased it's taken longer for them to sell okay and they've they've sold um you know what what's what's driving sales is being more moderate um in negotiations okay so um there aren't as many homes selling above list price more homes are having to take
37:56 a are having to drop a price in order to sell finally and this is the important uh graphic I want to show you is the migration Trends so um moving to you can see the the the hotter the color the the more likely people are moving there the Bluer the color the more those are people leaving okay California 45,000 people were searching to move out of California State versus in into the state next is New York
38:32 26,000 more more than 26,000 people were searching to move out of New York State versus into the state so you can see the states um out of which people are moving are California Washington North Dakota Colorado Nebraska Missouri Illinois Pennsylvania um Massachusetts Connecticut and Rhode Island and then Maryland and Virginia the places they're most likely to move to Florida okay the Carolinas in Tennessee Arizona and then
39:08 to a lesser extent Idaho and Nevada and then uh you know and and Maine by the way okay and it looks like New New Jersey is up there too interestingly enough probably people moving out of New York to New Jersey it still looks like it's um less expensive okay one more to look at here top 10 areas people are moving from Los Angeles net outflow for the fourth quarter of last year almost 30,000 people New York over 24,000 San Francisco over 24,000 Seattle Washington
39:45 almost 19 Washington DC over 14,000 Chicago 6 Philadelphia 5 Dallas Texas is the only uh Red State City that lost population um in the in the fourth quarter of last year um and and Dallas it but Dallas is a is kind of a almost like a blue State Enclave um in what is otherwise you know very red State okay Denver Colorado Boston Massachusetts these are all you know
40:21 essentially um that people are leaving um you know communities where there's um you know frankly not to be political but very left of center government okay where are they moving to well Sacramento interestingly enough is the top place which which would seem a little bit strange um I suspect that um it's people like going from San Francisco who are moving to Sacramento so that's why you're seeing the Sacramento increase even as San Francisco declines by more than three times what Sacramento is
40:56 gaining other than that the people people the places people are moving to um tend to be either red or purple States um so uh Cape cor Cape Coral Florida Myrtle Beach South uh Carolina okay well uh actually Salsbury Maryland that would be a blue State Portland Maine um kind of purple Las Vegas Sarasota Florida Phoenix Nashville Tennessee all red State um and Hilo uh Hawaii um o obviously a um a blue State Community okay so what we're seeing here
41:34 and what is affecting home prices is a big out migration from California and that's part of what you're seeing here now I'm going to look at another um um location uh let's look at Florida okay so uh Florida meeting sales price 410,000 essentially 800 roughly half of what it is in California number of homes sold 29,000 about the same number of homes sold median days on
42:11 Market 70 as I recall it was 45 uh in California oh oops oh okay yeah that's the market that's the market overview okay and uhh yeah that's the market overview okay um all right uh Supply so um number of houses for sale went up 20% in Florida okay um number of newly listed homes went up 6% it's a f Monon Supply that's one of the things that's keeping prices more moderate in Florida
42:47 okay demand homes sold above list price went down 2% roughly 2% home sold with price drops went up 3% and you know sales to list price went down slightly um 96.4% okay and then okay it's say it's the migration Trends are going to be the same okay so you can see why why uh you know Florida um is is seeing um uh you know the the
43:24 largest uh net in Migra a of people um it's because you know housing prices are a lot lower and I know I've had you know a number of friends leave California to move to to um uh to move to Florida okay let's see how we're doing on time here yeah we're doing well all right now let's look at okay let's look at rents next yeah I'm
44:00 going going to we got three more things to show you okay so here this is the the Zillow Zillow rentals um and you you can see we can see what's happening with the rental market let's look at Los Angeles first okay so um uh median rent is $2,785 down slightly month over month and year over-year okay and you can see that the bulk of uh rents are in in in um Los Angeles are in the range of about
44:36 1,700 to about 3900 okay and then there's there's a a pretty large number in the 5,000 plus okay um and the market temperature is cool according to Zillow now let's compare that to Miami Florida okay Miami Florida more recently rents went up okay even as year-over-year they went down okay um and and interestingly enough the r the you know the range in terms of rents is
45:12 pretty similar to in Los Angeles okay the market though is is warm in Miami uh versus in uh Los Angeles and that has to do with the relative outflow from California especially Los Angeles versus the inflow to uh to Miami and then the other one I I think I typically look at is uh Omaha just to give something that's very different from either of those locations so Omaha Nebraska okay rents increase both month over month and
45:47 $48 in a market where the median rent is uh $1,548 that's a 3% increase month over month okay and it $200 increase year-over-year over a 10% increase year-over-year none and you nonetheless you can see that the range really goes from around 700 to about 1900 so notice that um rents are much lower in a a you know Midwestern City like Omaha and as
46:22 well notice that the market temperature is pretty cool so that's that's interesting given how much rents have increased both last month and over the year okay so um there's there must be um you know a a supply constraint that is is um pushing rents uh higher um you know even even though um there's there's um uh even though the market uh remains pretty cool there okay so that that's the the
46:58 situation with uh with rentals overall it appears especially in bigger cities the market is is is is fairly stable okay but there are some smaller communities where it's really increasing okay so let's do this and then let's go to okay home to Pro to uh home price to income ratio so this is I think one of the most important sta itics to look at um and that is the ratio of home price to median household income and this is
47:35 looking historically from uh 1955 all the way to um basically the end of the third quarter last year um it's essentially at an all-time high of 7.25 meaning the median home price is over seven times the median household income okay now you know the last time it was even close to that high was in 2006 but you can see for most of the
48:12 last 70 years okay it has been under six okay and then what we've been seeing since um October 2020 when it first went above six is is a pretty steady increase through um through 2022 it did drop off a little bit but then went up again so um uh you know it will be interesting to see um with a with New Economic Policy in Washington DC Washington DC what that does to this ratio of home price to
48:48 median household income by the way until around 2002 for you know over 40 for 4 over 40 years the ratio was under five okay it was actually it was you know around 4 and a half% or lower okay and then in uh 200 11 it did dip below five for just a little bit right so we are seeing unusually high ratio of home price to
49:24 median income that does not Bo Lo well for especially young people who want to buy a house okay now what what what does that mean okay so this is the last thing we're going to look at and we're going to look at a series of um uh basically um the this is a sort of a cons a survey of consumers they call it so we're going to look at three things the index of consumer sentiment the current economic conditions and the
49:59 index of consumer expectations so the index of consumer sentiment changed just a little from uh uh from December to January okay so um but it did decline 7% year over-year so consumer sentiment is how people feel about their current situation so how they feel today over a year ago they feel significantly worse but in but not not much worse this month versus last month
50:37 okay uh current economic conditions now this is a composite of both consumer sentiment and other indicators of um economic activity so it actually went up 3.7% from December to January even though overall for the year it went down almost 5% so there was a bump in uh actual um current economic conditions from December to January um
51:15 but for whatever reason people aren't absorbing it and I think it's partly reflected here in the index of consumer expectations this is what we think we consumers think a as to what's going to happen in the future and I'm going to take you all the way back to the beginning of the show when I talked about inflation right and you can see that uh that the index of consumer expectations went down by 4.2% month over month and almost 9% year over year
51:51 what is driving that is inflation continuing to be stubbornly higher than the FED is saying um that the FED has its Target people still feeling impinged by inflation people's real earnings essentially being flat slightly declining a month over month all of these so th those are some of the factors and the other factor is there's been a lot in the news about how the
52:27 tariffs that President Trump has been talking about the last couple of months since he won the election um there there have been all kinds of predictions that those tariffs are going to ignite inflation even more so now I I personally think that's a misread of the president's intention uh you know if if you know anything about uh Donald Trump's career he's a guy who likes to make a lot of deals and so he says a lot of stuff as he shapes up his negotiating
53:02 position and a lot of it doesn't necessarily happen because he ends up nego using that as negotiating leverage to get the best deal that that he can so I think that the idea that we're going to see a surge of inflation because of tariffs um unlikely to happen Okay countries are going to negotiate China is in a is in a weak financial position so they're they're going to have to well I shouldn't say they're going to have to but they they would be they would be smart to negotiate on a number of these
53:38 issues less their economy get even worse okay same with with Canada same with uh Mexico there I mean their their economies are not fantastic but they're not as bad as China um but there's likely to be a new Administration in can Canada the Liberals are are the liberal government is almost for sure going to fall and um the conservatives are going to take over um I listened to uh an interview of the uh who is of the man who is likely to be the the prime minister in Canada very soon I've gone
54:15 up on his name but I think he's open to negotiating um with with the United States uh for to to you know better work together to increase living standards for both Americans and Canadians so um I I I I understand why Americans are pessimistic about the future um but I think this is partially media driven and and and that's why I do this show is to help us look you know beyond what the media is telling us and
54:52 and really look at at the data and how it's likely to actually affect us as individuals so all of these links plus others will be in the show notes if you want to review anything if you want to look at some of the other economic indicators um I have a link in there where you can look at average housing costs by city by state um if you're interested in that um some other things um uh that um you you can look at and and and I encourage you to spend at Le
55:28 about 15 or 20 minutes just looking at inflation in your locality looking at home prices in your locality and and and breaking that down look at how your industry is trending in terms of job growth or not um because that may give you some sense of what your proos what future prospects are and what you may be wanting to do in terms of professional training and that sort of thing um to make sure that you know you you continue to have a a viable economic life going forward so uh with that we're we're
56:03 coming up on almost an hour I try and keep the show to an hour there's a lot of data uh just real quickly gonna um respond to a message I got here uh um and uh okay so uh thank you very much as always for joining me especially those of you who are watching live um always nice to have you here um we I think we've had a good start to the to the New Year looking forward to
56:38 continuing with this and if you have any questions comments uh please uh my links to my social media will be in the show notes feel free to share those something personal you can always email me and I haven't mentioned this in a while but if you are not a subscriber um to my YouTube channel I really would love it if you would subscribe um there is no cost of course um and that way you'll get notified every time um a new show is going live um and you'll never miss an episode of the way to wow shows and uh
57:14 you know it would be uh um really a pleasure to have you among um my subscribers so uh you know thank you for considering that and um and then wraps it up for the week um so I will wish you both a wonderful rest of the day as well as a terrific rest of the week look forward to seeing you next week Monday 10: am. trust and Estates weekly Tuesday 10 AM these are all Pacific Time Business lessons from the military a week from today Wednesday at 10: am the
57:49 next edition of people making money and then next week on Thursday at 5: PM is my every other week show jigger's place again 5:00 pm we'll have a cocktail and talk about the next big subject and let's see what's what's on the calendar for that ah yes so cocktails uh no no sorry uh yes cocktails and great books I'm going to be talking about one of my all-time favorite books uh ivanho uh it's also a terrific terrific
58:25 movie um and um I've been focusing more on in my my reading for fun on adventure stories as opposed to uh detective stories and so we'll we'll sit back and we'll have a cocktail and and go back to the time when Knights uh stocked the uh the the the domains of England so I hope you'll join me for that so again thanks so much for joining me uh wishing you again a wonderful rest of the day and signing off as I always do Marie darling you are my bell courage at all times my
59:01 friend