0:02 The best time to win a battle is before it starts. When you still have the freedom to gather intelligence, choose the ground, concentrate your resources, and shape the conditions in your favor. The Battle of Tangga in German East Africa in November 1914. Today on Business Lessons from the Military, who [music] are you? And where are you going? [music] What do you want?
0:42 Hello and welcome to Business Lessons from the Military. I'm your host, Kevin Bemel, and I'm here every Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time to talk about military history, doctrine, and leadership practices, and then distill from them lessons we can apply to our businesses and professional practices. So today's show is winning before the battle begins. That may sound a little strange, uh, but I think you'll you'll warm to the topic as I get into it. And I'm going to be using as my historical example uh the battle of Tangga in German East Africa that took place in
1:19 November of 1914. This was a battle between German sorry between British and Indian forces um several thousands of whom were defeated by a much smaller German colonial force under Lieutenant Colonel Paul Vonto Vorbeck. And the the in short, as you'll see in the show, the British were uh just very overconfident. And that was really their undoing. And in fact, it's it's very likely they lost
1:57 the battle before any kind of combat action started. So um I want to talk I'm going to talk about I think four misconceptions about winning both in the military and also in business and how we can how we we need to deal with those. So the first one and I think this this is one we we hear about quite often um and we take it as just sort of you know holy rit is that having more resources means you have the advantage. So if you
2:33 have more people, more money, more equipment than your opponent, haven't you already created the decisive advantage? Now, that may seem to be the case, and sometimes it is, okay? Sometimes having a massive resource advantage means that another company is going to win. But that's not always the case. So, only if you or a company can convert those resources into effective action will they become the dominating force
3:10 that they ought. So size creates potential power, but preparation, concentration, and leadership can turn potential into usable power. And that's what's most important, how we use our resources. So in the battle of Tangga, the British sent a large British uh British Indian expeditionary force to capture Tanga. was an important uh port and terminus in the I'm gonna I'm going to read this so I don't say it wrong. Usbara railway and Leto Vorbeck um
3:49 initially had only a small force in the area but he concentrated reinforcements at what he knew would be the threatened point. and and so although the the the the attacking force was substantially larger ultimately it was driven back to its transports. So in business this translates to while a large company may have more employees, capital, locations and customers than a
4:24 new and smaller competitor, the smaller company can concentrate everything on a single market on a narrow consumer segment or in a geographic territory. uh and and in so doing I'm sorry did I say one market I meant one product so the smaller newer competitor can concentrate it all of its efforts on one product on one consumer segment or on one geographic market and in so doing it can beat the larger company whose
5:02 whose um resources are more dispersed and therefore they're they they're they're distracted by having so many objectives, so many different problems that with which it has to deal that it can't take on this more focused um albeit smaller competitor. So the the business lesson is don't confuse possessing resources with efficiently employing those resources. Ask yourself
5:37 where is the decisive point and are we putting enough of our resources there. Right? That's why you see small independent uh coffee shops able to survive and thrive even in the face of behemoths like Starbucks. So, just not far from where I live in Beverly Hills, there's a a place called I think it's the Parrot Cafe. It's a wonderful place to go and have coffee. I haven't had the pastries. They're not kosher, but they look delicious. And two or three doors
6:14 farther north is a Starbucks. And on the other side of a Starbucks is another beautiful little cafe. Again, I've had the coffee there. It's it's excellent. I would go to either one of those before I would go to Starbucks because they're so focused on excellent excellent product and excellent service. Right? So more resources doesn't mean that you have the decisive advantage. Okay. Misconception number two. Once you have a good plan, it's time to execute. Right? So the real
6:51 question is before executing the plan, what assumptions have you made about the situation? So planning often begins with assumptions and they're recognized as such, but they gradually become treated as facts. And the danger isn't isn't necessarily having assumptions. Planning requires having assumptions. The the danger is failing to identify that they are assumptions and letting them become what you believe to be the circumstances and then finding out once
7:28 the battle has begun, oops, that's not exactly how it's going to work. Right? So in the battle of Tangga, the Brit British planning suffered from inadequate intelligence and excessive confidence about the opposition, i.e. that it was small and it was not going to be effective. Right? Then the land so the landing occurred without adequate reconnaissance of the area and the assumption that overwhelming numbers would compensate for other weaknesses proved to be badly mistaken and the
8:06 British Indian force was defeated. So a business plan might assume for example that customers will pay a particular price, that financing will be available, that a project will receive regulatory approval, that a key employee will remain with the company or that a competitor won't respond. Typically a very foolish assumption, [snorts] right? Or and that a supplier will deliver on schedule. But if any one let alone two or more of those assumptions prove not to be the case, what is going to happen
8:43 to the plan? And and the likelihood is that the plan is going to fail. So while it may look excellent on paper, um while depending on only, you know, one assumption, I'm sorry. So it while it may look excellent on paper, depending upon one insum assumption that has never actually been tested could make the whole plan fail. So for example, the idea that the competitor that the market is static and if you change no one no other market player is going to change is almost always wrong. Now, a
9:20 competitor may be slow to react, but part of the reason they may be slow is they're taking the time to clearly think out their qu their their counter strategy and then when they do respond, bang, you you you hit a wall, right? And so the business lesson is before executing an important plan, ask what must be true for this plan to succeed. Right? So identify the three or four critical assumptions and determine how many known fact how many are known facts
9:57 versus educated guesses. Okay? And that way you can be sureer of your plan before you actually launch operations. Okay? Let's take a quick break.
10:18 >> [clears throat]
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10:56 or visit magnumprops.com. Okay, misconception number three. You can always adjust once the operation begins. Right? So the real question is when does a decision become difficult or expensive to reverse? In other words, when am I so committed that changing what I'm doing is going to be, you know, almost impossible or it's going to become so costly that the success of the
11:32 operation is is going to be put at substantial risk. Right? So before committing leaders usually possess numerous alternatives, right? Each commitment tends to eliminate some of those alternatives. So this is why preparation isn't merely about developing the bl. It's also about preserving optionality and until commitment becomes necessary for the success of the battle. So at
12:08 Tangga, the British actions help the Germans, help alert the Germans to the impending attack, right? and and so the the the sort of advanced party told the Germans where the attack was going to come and that that the delay of the main force attacking gave uh Letovorbeck valuable time to reinforce his forces using the railway at Tangga. Now,
12:43 railroads had been used in military operations at that point for about 50 years. Uh, but they were still somewhat of a new uh um tactical uh uh weapon, if you will. Not technically not a weapon, they were a new sort of tactical factor in battle. And uh Letto Vorbach used this um you know the the the means of transporting troops rapidly very much to his advantage and to the to
13:18 the point where uh he was able to bring in at least enough troops to defeat what was still a much larger British Indian force. So by the time the British main advance occurred, the situation was materially different from the one the attackers might otherwise have faced. Right? And so in the end they the the British lost because they they but once they had sent in their initial force they were really committed to make to sending in the main
13:55 force otherwise the the small initial force would have been wiped out. So they lost all optionality right. So in business take the example of a company planning a new location right initially it can it can buy or lease it can choose several loca from several locations it can expand gradually it can partner with another company it can even abandon the project without there being much of a cost. Right? Then it signs a lease. Okay. Now it's lost the option of
14:30 buying. Then it borrows money. Right? And now it's further constrained. It orders equipment. It hires employees. Okay. Then it announces an opening date. For it to abandon the project becomes very very difficult. Now, even though that still may be the right thing to do, but in the face of pressure from investors, uh it it may be too hard for management to admit that they made a mistake and just sort of ride off all that money, right? So, at every stage, an
15:06 alternative, another alternative disappears and the cost of changing direction ar uh increases. Right? So the business lesson is make reversible decisions early and hold off on making irreversible decisions until they really are necessary. In other words, without making the irreversible decision, the situation will, you know, inevitably work out badly, right? So before committing ask what options disappear when I make this
15:44 decision right and that way you get a sense of how much optionality you're losing okay that's uh misconception number three misconception number four victory is determined during the battle this is obvious right you win in the battle right So the better question is how or the better issue is if you will how much of the eventual result can be can be shaped before the battle actually begins. That's what
16:20 we're looking to figure out at the planning stage. So [snorts] execution of course will always matter and unexpected events will always occur. But leaders can determine many of the conditions under which execution will take place and that will have a profound effect on the success of an operation. So again at Tangga by the by the time the principal
16:55 engagement happened the British had already surrendered several potential advantages. So their intentions had not been effectively concealed. So they had surrendered surprise. Re reconnaissance had been inadequate and so they just they were not going to know ex exactly with what they would be faced. Right? The Germans had received time to reinforce. There was no way for the British to you know sort of wind the clock back you know and and act before the Germans could be could reinforce.
17:30 Led Alvorbeck had concentrated his limited resources where they really mattered. But at that point, the British didn't have the ability to change the point of attack. They were committed, right? And finally, the British eventually withdrew, leaving behind weapons, ammunition, and other supplies that materially benefited the Germans afterwards. Right? So, not only did they lose the battle of Tangga, but the British actually
18:06 uh gave away future advantage to the Germans in their withdrawal. So, from a business perspective, right, think about an important negotiation. Okay? Maybe you're negoti you're in real estate, you're negotiating on a lease. Maybe you're negotiating an important supply contract, right? So you can walk in the room and you can try to be a brilliant negotiator. Okay? Or before the meeting as you know
18:41 well in advance of the meeting in fact you can research the other party. You can understand what they need. You can ask some initial questions before the face-to-face negotiation, right? You can determine your own walk away point, right? What are your so-called red lines? You can develop alternatives. You can arrange financing, right? You can decide what information to reveal. and you can determine which concessions won't cost you a whole lot but matter
19:17 greatly to the other side. Right? So typically when I go into a negotiation, right? I know what my objective is, I do my best to figure out what does the other side really want. Okay? And then I go one step beyond that. So what will happen if the negotiation is successful? What's going to be the follow on from there? What's going to happen if the negotiation is not successful? Other words, what is my fall back position?
19:54 Right? Knowing those gives me a stronger position. By the way, it can give me a stronger position even if my fallback position is very bad. Okay? Because the other side doesn't need to know that my fall back position is bad. They may think I have a strong fallback position. Now, I will say that I never lie, okay? Because bluffing is a dangerous game, okay? However, there are lots of ways to answer questions that
20:29 either will reveal or will not reveal something important. And I think about those as well. So, I think about where are my vulnerabilities and how can I answer questions related to them in a way that will project the maximum amount of strength that I have in a negotiation. Right?
20:51 >> [clears throat]
20:52 >> So by the time the negotiation begins, much of my leverage has already been created. Okay? So I can go in with confidence. So the business lesson is don't depend on brilliance during execution to compensate for inadequate or a lack of preparation beforehand. We have to do our homework. So some closing thoughts. The battle of Tangga is interesting precisely because the lesson isn't that
21:28 a smaller force beat the larger force. That's not what's interesting. That has happened. Okay. What's interesting is the more useful lesson which is the conditions of the contest were being shaped before the battle engaged. So the British possessed considerable resources much larger than Leto Vorbbeck's but Leto Leto Leto Vorbeck was able to was better able to exploit
22:04 the circumstances that confronted him because he was better prepared. [snorts] Okay. And so this gives us a simple framework. Gather intelligence, challenge assumptions, concentrate resources, preserve options, and commit decisively. Right? I'm going to say those again. Gather intelligence, challenge assumptions, concentrate resources, preserve options, commit decisively.
22:40 Those are the factors that lead to winning in battle. And you notice that most of them are taking place either before the battle begins or are there because there was sound preparation. So winning before the battle begins doesn't mean knowing exactly what will happen. You will never know exactly what will happen, right? What it means is doing everything reasonably possible before you commit. and commit in a way that makes changes
23:18 difficult or impossible. So that when the inevitable surprises occur, you're dealing with them from a position of strength rather than trying to overcome problems you could have prevented. So I I'm curious to know a situation where either your preparation was decisive in having something great happen in business or where something bad happened and after the fact you realize if I'd only prepared X Y or Z
23:53 things would have worked out better. So look right down below you'll see links to uh social media. Post a comment in the show notes. share it with us and let's let's talk about those things. I' I'd love to be able to uh comment on what you post. All right. So, schedule of shows, Mondays at 10 a.m. Pacific time, trust and estates weekly. Tuesdays, like today at 10 a.m. Pacific time, business lessons from the military. Wednesdays at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time, people making money. And every other Thursday at 5:00 p p.m.
24:28 Pacific time, join me at Jiggers's place for a cocktail and a schmoo, and we'll talk about all kinds of great things like books and movies and relationships and ideas, those things that really make life worth living. So, thank you so much for joining me today. If you're not a subscriber, maybe think about clicking that subscribe button, whether you're on YouTube or Spotify or Apple Podcast, and that way you will never miss another episode. So, thanks again for joining me, wishing you a wonderful rest of the
25:03 day, and signing off as I always do. Marie Darling, you are my bell. courage and