0:00 [Music] who are you and where are you going what do you [Music] want hello and welcome to people making money I'm your host Kevin bemel and we're here every Wednesday at 10: a.m. to talk about Business and Professional matters wealth building and and all of those issues that uh pertain to our economic lives and today is our monthly
0:39 economic Echoes where we look at various uh economic indicators and break them down so we can see how is the economy affecting affecting us as individuals affecting our families our ability to take care of them all of those things that that L really matter and and as I always say we don't live the national economy we live each of our individual economies and so we need to develop the ability to take the information that's
1:14 being put out and see how does this how is this affecting how I how my family and I live our lives and what decisions do I make on that basis and so as as I normally do I'm going to start out out by uh talking about uh inflation and here we go uh okay there we go okay so uh inflation uh over the last period uh
1:50 went up 3% in November um and the um non-core inflation rate which is infl minus food and energy went up three I'm sorry so the the it went up 3% in November and it went up uh annually in other words year a year-over-year 2.7% okay so um this is if you've been hearing that inflation has been ticking up H it it has indeed um and um perhaps
2:26 a little more disturbing is the um inflation rate on uh the sort of what they call the core inflation rate which is the inflation rate less uh food and energy um also went up 3% but went up 3.3% uh over the last year so if we keep in mind that the the Federal Reserves Target rate is 2% okay we are uh certainly above that rate especially on the core inflation rate now the FED is meeting today um
3:04 December 18th to decide whether to lower interest rates again um my guess is they are going to lower interest rates a quarter for percent and you may be asking why is the Federal Reserve going to lower interest rates won't that cause inflation to continue to heat up and and yes indeed um that would that would seem to be the casee and and given the here's the problem the the perception right now is that interest
3:39 rates are high now historically that is not the case so mortgage interest rates interest rates on home loans of six to s% are not high those are that's a normal level for home home loan interest rates okay but because interest rates were so low for the last 30 or 40 years they seem to be high especially for people who are moving into their Prime home buying age range right and so so this this is this is a problem that the
4:16 Federal Reserve is trying to deal with there's also another issue and and I I don't think I've talked about this the Federal Reserve used to have one job and that was keeping prices stable which is currently uh defined as um keeping keeping inflation um under 2% however a number of years ago I think it's actually almost 20 years ago the Fed was given a second job and that was
4:52 or that is to what so-called full employment now full employment is is a a a term of art um it's an economic term right because for you or me full employment means I'm working right but from the from the national economy standpoint full employment means that in essence uh everyone who wants a job essentially has a job and and there's there's been a lot of discussion
5:27 as to what the so called Full Employment unemployment rate is right because what that doesn't sound right how can there be a full employment unemployment rate and and the answer to that is there's a certain percentage of people who are switching jobs in a healthy economy okay so if literally 100% of people who who want who are looking for a job have a job and are and nobody is unemployed that's not good for the economy because that means that uh
6:04 that that there there's no economic Mobility there's that that uh as as different Industries grow and Shrink people are not moving into other Industries okay so uh for for many years excuse me the so-called full employment unemployment rate was thought to be maybe 2 to 3% and then as as employment became persistently higher it it was decided maybe it's more like four to five
6:39 percent and to to a certain extent I don't think it this is a somewhat academic discussion for our purposes the Full Employment is when somewhere around you know 96 97% of of of people who are looking for a job have a job okay okay so the the problem for the FED is the Federal Reserve which is known as the fed the problem they have is lower interest rates tend to make it easier to
7:14 hire higher interest rates tend to make it more difficult to hire right uh but the reverse is true of prices okay so lower interest rates tend to cause inflation higher interest rates tend to Snuff out inflation okay so the two jobs that the Federal Reserve have work work in opposite ways given the main tool that the the really the main tools that the Federal Reserve has in in order to
7:51 fulfill its mandate and so this is why by the way you've been hearing uh uh not not the only reason of course but this is one of the reasons why I think you've been hearing uh discussion about the future of the Federal Reserve so some some people are talking um on on you know one end of the range that it should be U gotten rid of there should be no Federal Reserve Bank system U we we tend to think that because it exists now it already it always existed that is not
8:27 the true that is not the case um for at least half of America's existence there was no US Federal bank system um others are saying that the Federal Reserve needs to come under um Direct Control of the president um and that um this idea of it being um an independent organization is is is really a fiction um there are other people who are saying that it needs to go back to its original Mandate of of price stability and get
9:02 rid of the uh Mandate of Full Employment so and and I think these are all good discussions for us as a country to be having um because the Federal Reserve certainly did not handle the last surgeon inflation well um and and it certainly seems to be too Meed in the political consequences of its decisions rather than just fulfilling its its Duty so having said all those things let's let's now dig
9:38 into uh the inflation numbers um a as as we do so um major categories again inflation was up 2.7% over the last 12 months okay and um um actually wait okay yeah okay now um food was up 2.4% and we can see that food at home went up only 1.6% food away from home restaurants 3.6% okay so if you don't eat out very much like me I don't eat out very much so my food prices my food cost probably
10:16 didn't go up uh as much as other people who eat out a lot okay now let's look at this here we go so we can see that meat poultry fish and eggs went up 3 8% okay and the next highest increase was alcoholic beverages which went up 2.8% okay um and then you have you know Dairy 1.2 fruits and vegetables 1.1 uh and then other food at home7 SP so if you eat a diet high in protein U meat
10:52 poultry fish and eggs and you drink a lot you experienced inflation on food prices much higher than if you eat a a diet of primarily um Dairy and fruits and vegetables and um and and you know cereals things like um bread and and and uh those those kind of things where prices actually uh went down okay so what you eat in your diet uh you and your family what you and your family eat has a big impact on how you're
11:28 experiencing in inflation okay now energy costs went down by 3.2% over the last year now energy Commodities went down8 and a half% whereas Energy Services went up 2.8% so let's again let's drill down okay so fuel oil went down 19.5% so if you live in the East where you use fuel oil to heat your house excuse me you have you you may have ex
12:05 you may have felt like well gosh inflation was 2.7% but I feel like I'm actually doing better well that may be because fuel oil costs dropped by almost a fifth okay as well gasoline went down by 88.1% so if you drive a lot again your cost of living dropped okay now if you live in a state like California where we have gasoline formulation that's different than the rest of the country you did not uh
12:42 experience lower gasoline prices okay so that's one of the challenges of living in California is not only do we have a special special special gas formulations that refineries have to supply but ALS Al we have less refining capacity now um than than we had um before and so uh gasoline prices in California tend to not drop in concert with the rest of the country okay now going back to
13:17 Energy Services okay electricity went up 3% n natural gas went up 1.8% so if you have an all El electric home um and you may have experienced inflation at a higher rate than if you have a home like mine where I have I have natural gas stove top and and natural gas heating okay but in in any event um Energy Services didn't go didn't go up a whole lot okay now all other items went up a total of
13:52 3.3% Commodities less food and energy actually went down 610 of a percent service less food and energy went up 4.6% okay so let's look at these so apparel went up the cost apparel went up 1% new vehicles went down 7/10 of percent used cars went down by 3.4% um let's see oh um trying to see what this is okay alcoholic beverages went down or went up 4/10 of a percent so essentially
14:27 unchanged uh no I'm sorry what is oh alcoholic beverages I'm sorry went up 1.8% so a little bit I'm trying to see what this one is it doesn't want to let me see it okay and tobacco and smoking products went up 6.6% okay so if you are a smoker what's going on well the um the the settlement that states made with the tobacco companies now quite some time ago has you'll you know excuse the pun addicted
15:03 states to the money that they get from uh from the addicted uh states to the money they got from the tobacco companies now some of those uh agreements I think are running out now and so in order to keep that uh that that supply of tax money coming in uh states are raising taxes on tax on Tobacco and smoking products okay so you are never going to see tobacco and smoking products decrease in price forever after they're going to go up in
15:38 price and and the idea is basically to make smoking so expensive that people just won't do it anymore okay um and and given that the people most likely to smoke are people at lower income levels that strategy may work now you you might say well gosh that's that's someone dishonest if they want to ban smoking they should just ban smoking I would tend to agree with that argument but um you know people in in this country tend not to like having things banned and so
16:13 um you know they you know they they don't they won't wouldn't vote for something like that and so this is kind of a backway a back doorway for public officials to to decrease smoke smoking okay so that is the inflation picture oops what do I here we go uh okay um next um we're GNA look at the um local inflation
16:49 picture Okay so we're going to look at I I I look at Los Angeles because um that's where I live but you can you can find these figures for your area all you need to do is is do a a web search for CPI Consumer Price Index and then your locality Omaha Nebraska Miami Florida um you know Dallas Texas okay and you'll get these numbers so uh area so for the Los Angeles area which um which includes Los Angeles Long
17:25 Beach Anaheim okay the consumer price index actually dropped 2/10 of a percent over the past month but it's still up 3.2% for the year okay so that's the over so as has been the case for quite some time now the overall inflation rate for Los Angeles has been higher than the national rate and um the uh the core inflation rate uh went up
18:00 4.1% in Los Angeles as opposed to 3.3% nationally right so again we see that California is a not only a more expensive place to live but becoming an Ever more is but it's our prices are at least in Los Angeles are increasing more rapidly than the country as a whole all right food prices increased 7/10 of of a percent last month um prices for food at home went up also 7/10 of a perc okay
18:38 and food uh prices for food away from home increased 6% so um prices for food away from home actually went up Less in the Los Angeles area than nationally okay um but you know we're we're we're talking uh actually it's I think a percent right so um oh I'm sorry but this is this is for the for the monthly period okay so year-over-year um food prices went up three and a half% food at home increased 2% food for home away from home went up 5.1% so food prices
19:17 are increasing at Double or more of the national average actually almost three times the national average for food away from home uh here in the Los Angeles area area Okay so uh you know again not only is is Los Angeles a a more expensive place to live but it's it's prices are increasing here faster than they are in the rest of the country okay um energy excuse me went down 1.8% it was due mainly to for for the month um it was due uh to lower gasoline
19:54 prices which dropped 2% okay prices for natural gas uh decreased 6.3% for the month wow that's a big increase okay prices for electricity declined a tenth of a percent for the month so in other words we're essentially unchanged so overall Energy prices declined 8.6% over the O year-over-year due largely to lower gasoline prices 12.4% okay so um but also prices for natural gas
20:29 Decline 12.8% and prices for electricity decline 7% or almost 1% so we are seeing Energy prices going down here in California now that that does contradict what I was saying about um the U special formulations um for gasoline here in California and the declining refining capacity um I think one of the reasons why we're seeing uh lower gasoline prices is because California has adopted electric cars at a higher percentage I
21:06 think than any other state in the Union so that may be having an impact that may be impacting uh gasoline prices in a positive way so I know for for me I don't have an electric car I have no plans to buy an electric car um don't want an electric car um you know until unless and until um they're they're they're much better they're much less expensive and the infrastructure for them is is built out um but but so I'm I'm happy to let everybody else adopt them and lower
21:42 gasoline prices okay uh and then for for the so-called core inflation all items except food and energy okay that they declined 2% in November um led by uh apparel which went down 1.6% % and Recreation which went down 8% okay there were higher um prices for Home Furnishings at half a percent and shelter at 0.2% now over the year um the core inflation rate for Los Angeles rose 4.1% again higher than the national
22:17 rate of 3.3% so uh the components contributing most to that increase our Medical Care went up 88.4% and shelter went up 4 6% and these were partially offset by a decrease in the prices of new and used vehicles here's the thing though if you didn't buy a car in the last year who cares that vehicle prices went down you didn't buy a vehicle so that didn't help you out okay so if you're if you like if like me you're living in California and you're
22:53 feeling like gee I don't know it seems like inflation went up more here um that that would certainly be the case and uh you know for those you know if you feel like you're falling uh ever farther um behind um especially compared to the rest of the country um that is that is certainly the case our prices are increasing more rapidly than than the rest of the country okay next we're going to look at
23:29 real earnings okay all right here we go and let me let me make this larger so you can see it better all right so um real average hourly earnings were flat October through November okay and they were up uh uh 14 cents year over-year year okay or basically 1% okay so why is that important well
24:07 inflation went up 2.7% hourly earnings went up 1% so if you're feeling like you're falling behind you are okay now let's look at uh weekly earnings okay so weekly earnings uh went up 30 let's see a134 okay $1.34 um going from October to November um and and that is three1 of a percent so you know obviously um not not
24:45 a lot um and and again um that barely kept pace with um I mean that that kept that just kept pace with inflation so you're not getting ahead but you're not falling behind so um why the difference between real average hourly earnings and weekly earnings it's just it's just the way that that they're calculated um so the bottom line is um and and then they you you see um average hourly earnings uh went up uh 0
25:21 4% um average oh part but by the way part of the difference between average hourly earnings and average average weekly earnings is um it comes from what is the average weekly hours um worked and so people worked a little bit more and so that's why weekly earnings went up so um you know hourly rates did not change but people worked a little bit more and so that's why the average hourly uh average hourly uh earnings went up okay um
25:58 excuse me so um um so uh so so you can see that um really not you know gaining any kind of significant ground um because the the rate at which earnings are increasing is is essentially matched uh by inflation and and so again if you're feeling like gosh I I I really I don't feel any better off than I was um that that that data uh would that that certainly um ma
26:36 matches the the data now I don't have the um uh local data for earnings unfortunately okay so GNA move on to the unemployment rate okay and all right so the unemployment rate uh overall in November was 4.2% um that was uh that was up just a tenth of percent from uh October okay so
27:14 you know for all intents and purposes it was flat now for uh men 20 years and over okay the uh unemployment weight 3.9% which was flat literally flat for from last last month for uh women 20 and older the unemployment rate also 3.9% for November um that is up from 3.6% so it actually went up uh you know significantly for for women okay and then for um for uh 16 to 19 year olds um
27:53 it went down to 133% from 13.8% um but it's dropped almost a over a percentage Point since September okay now I think we're going to find when we look at the um uh um the the figures for um Workforce participation that the reason the unemployment rate went down for 16 year to 19 year olds is um fewer of them are uh participating in the workforce so as I as I always
28:30 mention unemployment rates can't be looked at in isolation they have to be looked at in concert with uh with um uh Workforce participation rates because the unemployment rate only measures the percentage of people who are looking for jobs who don't have a job okay and so if fewer people are looking for a job that can lower the unemployment rate even though the number of people working hasn't changed or has has actually dropped okay so so the two
29:07 work in concert all right now let's look by demographic okay the um Unemployment uh rate for white workers 3.8% in November uh which is I think the same yeah in October okay for black Americans the unemployment rate was 6.4% in November up from 5.7% in October that's a pretty it's almost well it's a 7% increase three qus of a percent now is that because more black Americans entered the workforce or
29:43 is it because fewer had jobs we'll we'll look at the we'll look at the um Workforce participation rates in a minute and we'll we'll see if we can figure that out okay the unemployment rate for asian-americans 3.8% uh last month I mean uh for November versus uh 3.9% for October so essentially unchanged and then for uh Latinos uh the unemployment rate for November 5.3% versus 5.1% in October also a
30:18 pretty pretty small change okay so um and uh okay so that's that's the that's the national unemployment rate figures and I'm gonna I'm gonna look I'm gonna show you real quickly um the unemployment the the state unemployment rates um I think we we looked at the same um this this same data last month we haven't gotten the November data yet but as is perennially the case South Dakota ranks
30:53 number one with a 1.9% unemployment rate and uh Nevada District Columbia California um 5.4 5.7 perennially the highest unemployment rates so um most most States um you can see here oops I I didn't I didn't sorry about that I didn't uh okay I didn't I didn't enlarge the chart but most States you can see have unemployment rates between uh 2.9% and and um you know about
31:30 3.94% so for most most states have employment rates between three and 4% so the outliers are North Dakota Vermont I mean South Dakota Vermont North Dakota New Hampshire okay and then on the other end they States like Rhode Island Michigan New Jersey South Carolina Washington Kentucky Illinois California okay so um not to make this a political discussion but but you can see that in in general the states with the highest unemployment rates tend to be um states with with
32:08 much more liberal governments that's certainly uh true of Washington DC and California Illinois uh Kentucky lesso certainly true of Washington and New Jersey and Michigan and Rhode Island right um and the exceptions would be Alaska and South Carolina Kentucky um and and uh you know th those States um must have some structural problems um that um you know that that they're that they're dealing with okay so I don't want to take a whole lot of time there because like I said I think we we cover that same chart in uh in in more depth
32:45 um last month so now we're going to look at um civilian labor force participation so we get a fuller picture of what's happening with you know people working okay so um okay so the civilian labor force participation rate was 62.5% in November down slightly from 62.6% so to the ex I think the unemployment rate was essentially flat so that kind of makes sense so there was a very small drop in people looking for
33:20 work that could have caused a small drop in the unemployment rate but but you know when we're talking 0.1% or or zero there's not really statistically a real difference there now for um men 20 years and older oops I'm sorry we're up here okay so the labor force participation rate 70.3% in November 70.5% in October just a a small change it's kind of been hovering right at that level so not particularly significant okay for women um 58.7%
33:57 in November and that was flat with October so again we're seeing why there wasn't a a big change for those um now for uh for 16 to 19 year olds where we saw a big drop in unemployment right the labor force participation rate was 36.2% in November which is um up from 35.8% so that's interesting interesting so the drop in teen unemployment did not
34:32 come from fewer people looking for work indeed the the participation rate is higher November versus October which means a lot more teens got jobs now this may be because uh stores are hiring for the holiday season in fact that's likely to be what it is holiday hiring okay um so this would you know this would be kind of a a a temporary bump here um but you know so we'll see what happens um
35:07 you know when we look at the December figures and then into January um but but that that would seem to be the reason why um we're seeing um lower teen unemployment okay so for white Americans the workfor workforce participation rate 62.1% down you know again one1 of perc essentially unchanged from last month for black Americans labor force participation rate also unchanged 58.7% October versus um versus November
35:42 for Asian Americans November participation rate 64.7 versus 65.5 so a a significant drop um and a an eight a 8% drop drop in the um Asian um uh labor force participation rate which is why we saw a drop in Asian unemployment okay and then finally for um Latinos okay so the workforce participation rate in November
36:17 66.9 and that was flat for uh for with with October so so again in looking at the two unemployment and Workforce participation that explains that oftentimes explains why these these change oh I'm sorry I forgot to make to enlarge that chart but in anyway okay so um now okay employment by industry is coming up next
36:52 and I will remember to enlarge the chart there we go okay so as has been the trend for as long as I've been doing these um economic Echo uh shows so um largest gains in unemployment in November came in uh Private health and and private education and Health Services so there were 79,000 new jobs a 310% increase um and the next largest Leisure and hospitality 53,000 and then then uh government jobs
37:30 uh 33,000 um those are the three biggest now biggest business of Professional Services had a had a um a significant change um and and that's that that that's good because it they've been much lower manufacturing has seen 22,000 new jobs in November and construction 10,000 so you're seeing all sectors except for utilities which lost a 100 jobs and Retail trade which lost 28,000 jobs so all industry sectors actually saw at
38:06 least minimal uh job gains okay well information had zero um and and only really only one sector retail trade saw any significant uh loss in in jobs so let's break this down as we do so um as is the case um private educational Services saw a little bit of an increase the real big increases in private ucation and Health Services in terms of new jobs is in health care and social assistance which are driven by government spending okay so um and you
38:44 can see in all sectors of Health Care um they went up and then looking uh next at government okay so federal government actually shed some jobs uh whereas state and local government continued to increase jobs okay and and so the real driver of job increases two of the three largest categories is really being driven by government spending okay the other the third big one Leisure and Hospitality so you can see big big gains
39:19 in both Arts entertainment and Recreation and accommodation of Food Services as we drill down we see that it's in performance arts and and spectator sports and amusement and gabbling and Recreation that's really where they saw museums and historical sites not doing nearly as well and then on the accommodation in food so um we saw really the big gains were in food services and drinking places okay so that's where the gains are coming there um and then looking at uh Business Services okay so it's professional
39:55 scientific and Technical Services saw the biggest management of companies actually declines so companies are um becoming leaner um by getting rid of management and then administrative and support um also saw some pretty big gains okay and um here's this is interesting looking at professional scientific and Technical Services where the real big gains architectural engineering and related services so other words Services related to construction okay that's really where we saw um the big gain in jobs and that
40:30 makes sense because we we are still seeing growth in construction jobs okay now let's look at one more let's look at manufacturing okay so durable goods manufacturing accounted for all of the increase because non-durable Goods employment actually shrunk so where do we see it the gains in durable uh equipment uh durable goods manufacturing is in transportation equipment manufacturing that's really where all the gains came from most of the other sections lost or were unchanged interestingly enough okay so um you know
41:10 this is uh Transportation equipment manufacturing I think would be uh you know cars that that sort of thing now contrast that with non-durable Goods where except for chemical manufacturing everything else lost jobs or you know were essentially unchanged I mean tiny 100 jobs in textile mills again but almost all non-durable Goods uh There Was You Know had job losses in that industry Now by by the way this is the on Monon picture we're looking at okay so now let's look at the 12month
41:47 picture so you can see in the 12month picture over the last year what's really driven job growth has been private education health he services and the government which again is really government spending and you'll notice that although manufacturing jobs increased last month November year-over-year they still have dropped by 61,000 Business Services had um had had a you know 41 of a percent increase um over the last year which is much smaller than the percentage increase they had um
42:24 in for just November Construction um had had has had bigger job growth year o you know year-over-year or over the last year I should say but notice that the uh when looking at the on Monon picture it's it's it's gotten much smaller it would that would tend to indicate that it's it's slowing down okay now maybe with the increase in architectural and Engineering Services maybe we can anticipate that con jobs in construction are going to start increasing again um we'll we'll you know need to you know
42:59 keep an eye on that okay so um if you are in one of these sectors excuse me it's important to be tracking this to see what are my job prospects going forward okay and if I am considering making a change in Industry where where is it likely to see job growth coming and that's why I've been talking about some of these things now we're seeing big gains in government um in jobs that are you know fueled by um you know government uh um payment um I
43:37 would anticipate as we head into next year with the change in in administration we're going to start to see a decrease uh in in in uh government job growth es especially in the federal government so federal government jobs decreased um by 2000 in November okay um that was essentially due to the US Postal Service okay you can see that non-postal service jobs went up by I mean they went up by 700 jobs okay um my
44:12 point is is that uh you know if if um if president Trump um along with um um the the two men he chose to run the uh Department of government efficiency um Elon mus and vivec ramaswami um really you know are able to do what they want to do um presumably we will see um we will will see uh job uh shrinkage if you will in in both of these categories the federal government and the US Postal
44:47 Service and by the way one of the things they're talking about is privatizing the US Postal Service and there those discussions have been going on for decades ades of course um but but unfortunately for the US Postal Service it becomes more and more irrelevant as time goes by and so it becomes easier uh to do that you know there's G to come a point by the way that um so that that um right now total employment is uh 600,000 for the Postal Service wow that
45:24 that's still a lot there's gonna come a point where um the postal service has lost so many jobs that it's no longer going to have the political weight that it that it may currently have to maintain itself and so that's probably the point at which uh the postal service will be privatized by the way um there there is precedent for that Germany uh privatized its Postal Service now quite a number of years ago I know when I lived in Germany um I believe it's DHL ran the Postal Service okay and if
45:59 you've ever had packages delivered by DHL the fact of the matter is um they're a much more efficient organization than than the US Postal Service okay so now let's look at uh okay um I'm going to I'm going to um um I think we looked at IND industry Reemployment by state um for October last month so I'm not going to cover that um and the same thing with job
46:36 openings um I only have the date okay so I'm gonna move to median home price okay so the median home price in the United States uh went up by two and a half% over the last year to $357,400
47:27 but median home price in Omaha Nebraska is only about $276,000 so uh considerably lower than the national average okay now let's look at Miami oops Miami I'll learn how to spell okay Miami Florida okay Miami Florida housing price Medan housing price went up 5.5% so more than double the national average and it's getting up towards 600,000 so as more more and more people move to Florida and and in particular Miami you can see that their housing
48:03 prices are going up higher than the national average okay let's look at another popular relocation Market let's look at Dallas Texas okay interesting Dallas Texas went down half a percent so you know essentially unchanged they're at they're at $36,000 significant L lower than Florida okay now let's look at places let's look at cities where um people are leaving and Los Angeles California certainly qualifies as a place people are leaving
48:39 so Los Angeles California median home price went up one and a half percent in other words lower than the national average but you can see that the median home price in Los Angeles California $952,000 so um you know one and a half% increase in your in a median home price in California still probably put more money in a home seller's pocket um if they sold their home then a two and a half% increase did uh for uh you know or 2.4% increase did for someone in Omaha
49:15 right that's one of the tradeoffs of of the market now let's look at one other let's look at uh San Jose California okay wow San Jose California went up a whopping 88.3% median home price 1.4 million dollar this is the heart of Silicon Valley so despite what else may be happening in California the tech industry is still thriving and it's still driving higher median home prices
49:50 okay so that could you and I would play around with this um in your own location to see how median home prices um you know what's what's happening with them in your Market okay now let's look at uh rental market trends okay so let's look at the same markets let's look first of all at Omaha oops at Omaha Nebraska okay so Omaha Nebraska month-over-month change $19 increase uh$
50:25 126 dollar change year-over-year so it had um what about a let's see 10 a one a little over a 1% increase in November okay and and um also 30 like a half a percent increase year-over-year okay and so um not not real big uh increases happening in the uh Neva Omaha Nebraska um rental market but you can see and and here this is a NE a nice thing to look at is where is
51:01 the ma where are the majority of um units available and while they range from $500 a month to 4,200 the reality is is most are in the range of about7 $800 to about you know $2,000 right around in there okay so that gives you an idea of the rental market there now let's look at uh Miami Florida okay so Miami Florida month month-over-month change $42 which is a little over 1% again but
51:38 year-over-year change is $150 decrease right so rents are rents actually decreased in Miami year-over-year um but that decrease you know that's that's actually really pretty small um relative to uh uh we're talking about what well yeah half a percent so it's a half a percent decrease Okay now what's interesting in the um in the Miami Market is um the the most number of
52:14 units available are in the very you know like high-end luxury Market the $5,000 a month plus evidently they go all the way up to $200,000 okay so you can see that rental prices over time have been um uh have been decreasing um you know they they went up in the middle of the year but now they've been going down of late okay now let's look at what do we look at Dallas Texas okay so Dallas Texas 2 just just small changes um not really
52:51 statistically significant and you can see they've been you know roughly flat here um they they were way up in August and since then they've come down okay and again you can see in the Dallas Market it it almost looks like a combination of uh of Nebraska and Miami in that you have a lot of units um from $900 to in this case about you know $2,800 but then there's also a lot of units available at $5,000 a month or more okay so that gives you an idea of the maturity of the Dallas Market okay now let's look at Los Angeles
53:30 okay so rents in Los Angeles were essentially flat and you can see that in the chart here they've pretty much been flat all year okay they had a little bit of a jump in October but really they've been pretty much flat all year and the majority of units available in Los Angeles are from about 156700 to you know into the $3,000 a month level and then a whole bunch of high-end units and you can see top top end of the market is $250,000 a month
54:05 wow okay so um you know rental in terms of renting in Los Angeles renters have have seen uh pretty stable rates and then finally San Jose okay so again you know essentially uh no change um month over month uh up a $100 year-over-year just a small change uh and um and you can see that um there's a very broad range of of rental
54:41 rates uh in San Jose from around $1,200 all the way up to over $5,000 you can see there's units available in all those categories so rents have have not in all these markets rents really haven't gone up a whole lot uh anywhere in the country okay which is good news if you're a render like me um but uh you know in your own Market um I I recommend that you you track this if you're a rener so you get a sense of where what might be happening um in the marketplace next year in terms of you know the your
55:18 your cost for housing okay and then I brought up one new thing that I wanted to show you for for this uh week yeah okay so this is um this is a this is a a consumer sentiment survey uh let me make this larger for you okay so uh oops wrong one uh okay so um the this is the preliminary results for December okay and this is consumer sentiment index of consumer sentiment is
55:55 up 3% month over month meaning November to December and over 6% from December of last year to December of this year okay current economic conditions okay up a whopping almost 22% month over month okay why did it go up so much well that's the election okay you're seeing you're seeing some enthusiasm uh because of the election okay and that's that's an interesting thing now um
56:32 uh the um index of consumer expectations actually dropped 7% and and that's because um although expectations among Republicans went up they just cratered for for Democrats and so the LA the drop in consumer expectation among Democrats was so great it pull down the overall rate okay so um what does this mean well overall um consumer
57:07 expectations except for um you know Democrats so among Republicans and independents um consumer expectations have improved markedly going from November to December and why is this important well as we expect things to go often times they will go so if we're talking about people starting new businesses expanding businesses which creates more job opportunity uh all of that is at least partly related to Consumer sentiment so if I don't think
57:43 that the econom is going to be good I'm not going to expand my business if I do think the econom is going to be good I'll I'm more likely to take that risk okay that also has to do with consumption patterns so if if I think the economy is going to be better going forward I'm more likely to buy a new car maybe I've been holding off but then I'll do it I'm more likely to buy new furniture I'm more likely perhaps to buy a house so positive consumer sentiment is a good good thing for the economy because that's what undergirds
58:19 the economy starting to grow now does projected consumer sentiment always turn into economic growth and the answer is no it does not we're just seeing a one- Monon phenomenon right now and so we're going to need to watch this trend and I will be I will be um following this um month by month um so we can kind of see how these things play out so all of this information I go through it and I go through it in in a in in a fair amount of detail because I I want to help you
58:54 learn how to parse this dat data so there is a a television commercial I see quite often because I'm a big fan of of uh The Big Bang Theory and it's a Progressive Insurance commercial and it's the the regular people they have in the commercial standing around a kitchen and they're and they're talking about the economy and a a young boy asks what's the economy and they can't answer the question now you know without getting on anybody's case it is kind of funny that a that calls itself Progressive um doesn't can't answer the
59:30 question what is the economy um but um what what's what's funny what's really funny for our purposes is they can't answer the question right and we don't want that to be us we want to know what the economy is right the economy is the summing up of all the interaction economic interactions of people living in the United States it's it's the summing up of our all our decisions to buy or not buy to keep our job or to change our job to start a business to not start a business to close a business
60:06 all of any any economic decision you can think of whether it's to do something or to not do something all of those come together that makes up the economy and in order to make as good decisions as possible we need to understand this data and so that's why each month I go through this because hopefully you gain ever greater economic Literacy By working through this with me so uh we're gon I'm gonna continue to do this um into next year and I'm going to continue to look for other indicators that I I I
60:43 think will help you better understand what's happening in the economy so that is our show for today I thank you for watching uh thank you for joining me especially my my live viewers always great to see you there and tomorrow at 5:00 pm Pacific time is my show jiggers is place this is my non-business related show uh we're gonna I'm going to take you to the South Seas for a tahan breeze and to talk about the Mutiny on the Bounty um I'm going to be talking about the book I'm going to be talking about
61:19 the actual Mutiny on the Bounty and the movies all of those things and uh for those of us in the the Chile Northern climbs we're going to go down to uh the South Seas where it's it's summertime uh this time of year so I hope you'll join me again tomorrow Thursday at 5:00 pm and then next week on Monday is my show trust in Estates weekly I'm going to be talking about some ways that you can make uh charitable contributions and get an even bigger tax um uh tax benefit uh than you than you might otherwise think
61:56 uh so that's on Monday and then on Tuesday which is Christmas Eve I am going to be doing a special show special edition uh for Christmas Eve and you may be thinking why is the rabbi doing a Christmas Eve show and that's because the the the fact of the matter is Christmas is a much more important holiday for Christians than Hanukah is for for Jews and so uh I I want to do this uh you know kind of kind of a tribute to uh to all my uh Christian friends and and and and viewers out there so that'll be at the uh regular time 10:00 a.m. on Tuesday so once again
62:33 thank you so much for joining me appreciate it very much any questions comments of course drop them into the social media send me an email and signing off because I'm a little bit late here as I always do uh Marie darling you are my bell courage at all times