0:13 good afternoon and welcome to the way to wow people making money I'm your host Kevin bemel thank you for joining me and today well first of all let me mention my guest from not last week we I was off last week but two weeks ago uh Dr Bob Sanders from NASA yes not an astronaut Bob is in charge of the medical aspects of the moonwalk and spacewalk uh programs for the Artemis project this is the new uh venture to take people back
0:51 to the moon so uh you know kind of takes me back to when I was a kid I you know remember sitting in front of a black and white television watching Neil Armstrong take his first step onto the moon off of the um uh the lunar lander I believe it was called um in any event uh Bob had Bob that this was Bob's second appearance on the show and I think you will find what he had to say both interesting and and very useful as you chart out your professional paths so I invite you to go to our YouTube channel the way to wow show
1:27 um and and I think you can just go YouTube slash at you know the app sign like on um whatever the at sign um the way to wow show or the way to the way to wow I believe it is and it'll take you right to the channel uh that's our new handle this is a new thing on YouTube I don't uh know that much about it but anyway it'll take you there and you can check out uh Bob's episodes so uh this week being that we're now a week past the midterm elections I wanted to talk about
2:03 um going forward how what's been happening in the last uh say six months or so um might impact our professional Prospect so let me start out by saying this is not a political analysis um about you know what what the Republicans or the Democrats or whatever did that I'm I'm not interested in talking about that um what I want to talk what I'm going to talk about is the results of the election what that is likely to do excuse me from a um legislative and or
2:39 regulatory uh standpoint and then also look at where the economy seems to be and and how um that might be uh impacting uh the the job market going forward so um let's let's first of all look at um the the national scene so um obviously there was no presidential race President Biden is still the president um it appears that um Democrats will stay in in control of the Senate um whether it's going to be a 50-50
3:15 Senate like the last two years or a 5149 is we won't know until after the Georgia runoff um but in any event um Democrats will keep control of that chamber and although it hasn't been officially decided it looks um you know pretty certain that Republicans are going to take control of the house um it's going to be by a fairly narrow majority and so you know if you've been reading any of the speculation um if uh indeed uh um Kevin McCarthy
3:50 does become speaker of the house so he's going to have um I think many of the challenges that uh Nancy Pelosi had the last two years where she had a very narrow majority in the house and so she and and her leadership team had to work quite diligently to get all the members of her caucus behind the various um you know measures issues bills Etc that were working their way through the House of Representatives so and and you know look all you have to do is remember
4:25 what happened in the Senate with um Joe Munchen I'm sorry Joe manchin so excuse me Senator manchin and uh Senator uh semina Christian I believe it's Kristin seminar in Arizona where um you know because they had Democrats had 50 Senators right they basically needed to keep every single Senator on board in order to pass a particular piece of legislation and in several instances um uh you know both one or both of those Senators indicated they would not support what was going on and so it was it was not going to pass
5:02 um and and Senator Schumer struggled with with uh you know getting um his and and or you could say his in the president's agenda passed um because of that so um what that probably means going forward with both uh chambers of the Congress having fairly narrow margins or very narrow margins is um there's likely to be gridlocked um and you know some people will say well that's that's terrible because um things won't get done
5:38 um other people will say oh that's great because things won't get done right those are the those are the two sides depending on someone's you know point of view on this um the reality though is there probably won't be a whole lot of major legislation coming out of Washington over the next two years so you know the um what was roughly one trillion dollar infrastructure bill um it's it's unlikely we'll see anything like that we're not going to see an addition to the the build back better idea that President Biden has most most
6:15 likely um as well they're with some exceptions that I'll mention in a minute there probably isn't going to be a whole lot of large um regulatory oriented legislation coming out um one place where that's probably where where you probably probably will see um some kind of um action on the part of Congress is with respect to cryptocurrencies if you've read you know the FTX um one of the big cryptocurrency exchanges when bankrupt
6:51 um this is just driving forward the um effort on the part of members of both parties to create some kind of stricter regulatory regime for cryptocurrencies going forward whether crypto is going to be regulated like a commodity like you know wheat and you know Frozen concentrated orange juice for those of you who love the movie trading places like I do or whether it's going to be regulated like a security stocks and bonds um and therefore be the purview of the SEC um that's I think still up for uh you
7:28 know up for grabs um and and there's also a chance you know there won't be any legislation um but I you know if if if you were a betting person you know probably figure we're going to see something on in terms of crypto regulation going forward um I think we'll continue to see a trend toward reshoring um what they're calling the bringing back of manufacturing to the United States especially from from from China and that that seems to be a pretty bipartisan issue as does the
8:05 um you know the the congress's uh attitude and kind of response toward China um because of their their human rights records um Etc their mercantilism etc etc so um I think uh and so from from a congressional standpoint I think that's where we're likely to see from President Biden's standpoint um I I think we will you know because of the divided Congress so the pressure is going to be on him to act by executive order um and as has been the case on his
8:41 predecessors um and and and so you know we're likely to see kind of a mixed bag there so if you've been following what's happening with the student loan forgiveness uh um uh I I believe it was I don't remember which uh which uh I believe it's the eighth District strict could be wrong on that anyway a federal judge came out and basically put a um I can't think of the name he basically put a stop order an injunction on um going forward with a student loan forgiveness program
9:17 um and and of course that's that's not the last word the Biden Administration continues to press forward um they're going to appeal that decision according to what I read um however um I don't think anyone would disagree that um the idea of um forgiving such a huge amount of money um you know by a president's signature basically um you know is is controversial to say the least and um one would imagine that this is something that may come before The
9:52 Supreme Court to settle the issue of whether a president has you know that that Broad and Authority to issue an executive order without an explicit legislation coming from the Congress and and so because of that um I think that the certainty with which executive orders get issued probably has declined um over the last couple of years especially so the Supreme Court seems to be less willing than pass
10:30 courts to defer to executive agencies um they they it appears they're taking a much stricter view of the executive branch executing uh regulatory Authority without some kind of specific law underpinning it that was passed through the legislature and so whether it's immigration where recently A A Court ruled that the Biden Administration can no longer Deport people back to Mexico under title 42 or or whether it's um you
11:07 know coveted policies Etc I think all of these it's less certain that um the administration can on its own you know signature so to speak the president on his own signature can make these things happen with any kind of certainty so there's likely to be challenges both from the the various states that that feel that they're impacted by it and by individuals and organizations that that feel the same way so in in summary you know what does this mean well
11:42 um there's likely to be as I mentioned before very little large legislative initiatives um that will impact um people's lives and and and and the economy um by the same token there could be some increased uncertainty about regulatory impact on the economy and on people's lives simply because that's the Avenue you know if history holds that the vitamin Administration
12:17 will take and and and and because there's less certainty that they'll be successful with that so they'll be less certainty for you know for us as we move forward as as employees as business owners as people living our lives so um I I I you know my my and this really is a guess I I have no crystal ball um but my guess is that um overall things will probably pretty much stay um the way they are on a legislative and Regulatory basis I I I don't think we'll be seeing big changes and in general
12:52 that's considered to be good for businesses because they have greater certainty um under which to plan what they want to do um and and so over the next two years um you know at least on the legislative and Regulatory uh front there there should be more certainty um in the economy coming from the from the federal government now on the state level um we're seeing um you know some changes not a lot um um Democrats are taking over
13:29 um two governorships that that previously were held um by Republicans they're both in states that are that lean heavily Democratic um Massachusetts and and Maryland um so you know one would imagine in those two states um you know you again you won't have the sort of moderating effect of a governor for one party and A legislature from another party um so one might expect that in those two states things will you know lean um you know a farther to the left and
14:04 maybe they have been the last few years and um in in Arizona um where a Democrat is replacing a republican as governor and now instead of having a state controlled by Republicans you have a state that's um uh split between uh Republican legislature and a Democratic governor so one would imagine that you know again you'll you'll you'll see more less activity potentially more more gridlock as the you know legislature in the government and the governor kind of go
14:39 back and forth in trying to get you know their particular priorities um it it established so um it's actually I I should have said three governorships uh uh flip from Republican to uh Democrat I'm not aware of any that flipped in the other direction so we're I think now there's what uh I think 20s there's either 26 Governors Republican and 24 Democrat or 25 of each um I I didn't check the numbers before I started the broadcast so um on on a state level some states will
15:15 be experiencing some change and and others won't I mean Florida you know Republicans are probably even stronger than they were um two years ago Texas uh you know probably the same thing Ohio the same thing so I you know probably not going to see changes in Most states in California no significant changes at the state government level um you know we had a few congressional seats flip from Democrats to Republicans but that's not going to change in any significant way how things are happening here in the state so at the state level
15:50 I think you know things are with the exception of the few states that I mentioned things are probably going to stay fairly much like uh like they were the last two years um and that from a from a stability standpoint that that gives businesses some idea that you know whatever course they're on is likely you know not to be interrupted by changes at the legislative or regulatory level um now in terms of you know local you know Mayors and that kind of thing um honestly I didn't get into that level of granularity I invite you to look at
16:25 that for whatever you know uh municipality you're in um I I haven't seen anything uh on trends of um you know changing you know changing party and power or any anything like that um I know here in Los Angeles um the uh Mayoral race between Karen bass who's a fairly far to the left Democrat she was up against uh Rick Caruso who was a republican who became an independent who became a Democrat and is a fairly you know middle of the road
17:01 Democrat that race it looked like um uh Rick Caruso was was headed for victory now it looks like Karen Vass is um we're votes are being counted slowly here in California um so I I don't know if if that that will change back to crew so we're not so um you know here's here's the thing this is what I've been telling my friends here in Los Angeles um in Los Angeles real power arrests with the city council so the idea that the mayor is going to come in and dramatically change the direction of the city is is pretty unlikely if the city
17:37 council people are not on board the mayor is not going to have a big impact on the direction of the city at least here in Los Angeles now in other cities the mayor it may be uh stronger and and have more um authority to change the direction of a city my understanding is New York is a strong mayor city um and so you know the mayor in New York presumably then has um a a greater ability to direct policy there so that's another thing to consider as you look at how are the elections going to impact the business climate going forward on a local level you know you
18:15 may you could have you know a a change of Mayor um and that might not really change anything if if you know the community you live in is a weak mayor uh Community um and in in Los Angeles as well Los Angeles County the Board of Supervisors is is very powerful and and again no big changes in the Board of Supervisors in Los Angeles County either and so you know I'm not anticipating on a local level seeing very much uh changing going forward no matter what happens with the Mayoral race so let me kind of then summarize what
18:50 I've just been talking about from an election standpoint um I think what we can count on is probably oh let me throw into the mix um um I heard from a friend yes late yes well actually yesterday evening um president Trump did declare as a candidate for the 2024 uh presidential race and so I guess we we don't get a break from campaigning even for a few days the presidential race is already you know kind of off kicking off um and so
19:25 um you know one can imagine that going forward whatever has been happening politically is probably not going to be substantially different going in you know into the future as it has been for the last two years that that would be how I would sum things up um I'm not saying if that's good dad or whatever you know however you've been looking at Politics on the various levels for the last couple of years my analysis is things are likely to say pretty much the same for the next two years
20:00 um you know and and then when we have the 2024 elections you know who knows what's going to happen for that so you know what President Biden running so then the election will be a replay of 2020 I don't know um certainly he's in a better position to do that now most people seem to agree um and but but that doesn't mean you know that doesn't mean he who he will run um and I I have no crystal ball so I I don't know um so again just in summary I think we have to count on whatever's happening coming from the political arena is going to be fairly similar
20:37 um to what's been going on the last two years with the exception that I think we won't see big huge um uh Appropriations bills you know trillion dollar appropriation bills um and over the next two years the way we saw them in the last two years so that's that's you know that that's that part of it the the elected part of it if you will now on the other side is and this is again at the national scene you know we have the Federal Reserve Bank and they control What's called the monetary policy and as as you probably know interest rates have been going up
21:12 they've been ticking up three quarters of a percent several several of those increases over the last few months um and what we're starting to see is at least a little bit of moderation um in in inflation um the the Consumer Price Index was at 7.7 percent last month versus eight or percent or over for the several months before that um and as well I read this morning um something briefly that the producers price index which is the cost that
21:47 manufacturers and producers pay for their raw materials and such that they turn into finished products that has also moderated so um it's it's you know it's it's not a trend yet we're talking about a really kind of a one-month thing um so you know will that and there's there's kind of somewhat mixed signals coming out of the Federal Reserve so on the one hand um Jerome Powell seems to be saying we we have to stay the course with increases um to make sure that inflation gets Stamped Out
22:22 um and so that would seem to indicate that you know we're we're going to look for more three-quarter percent uh interest rate increases other members of the federal Board of Governors are saying maybe it's time to moderate the increases so maybe we would see a half a percent again don't have a crystal ball can't say how that's going to play out um what I will say is um you know inflation is not literally a tax but it kind of is like a tax on us right because if if inflation has gone up I'm just going to use a round number
22:58 eight percent from you know 12 months ago to now so then what a dollar would buy 12 um what would cost 92 cents uh or roughly 92 cents a year ago will cost a dollar today right so or put another way it's as if we had a dollar to buy something a year ago and now we've only we only have about 92 cents to buy something today because eight cents has been taken away by inflation that's why they they talk about inflation being attacked right so you know what what's best for you know
23:36 most of us is to get inflation under control so that way we're not giving up part of our uh buying power merely because prices are increasing right um nothing really comes unlike taxes we pay to the government where you know they're at least presumably paying for you know services that the government provides inflation we we get nothing from inflation in terms of of something that enhances our lives really um now you could say well wait a minute you know we get up we higher interest rates give us a higher return on our savings right but but notice that that
24:11 doesn't offset the inflation so we're not we're not gaining ground in in that respect so um I I suspect that um uh Jerome Powell will be as good as his word in saying he's going to stay the course to get inflation down his Target um is two percent right so we're still well above that Target 5.7 percent above that Target um and so there's a way to go now you know many economists say that if you want inflation to drop you have to raise interest rates above the inflation rate
24:47 so I don't know are we going to see the discount rate uh which is the rate the Federal Reserve controls go up you know go to eight percent because it's only about four right now that would be a doubling again I I don't know um I did uh watch part of a press conference um that President Biden gave um after the election results um had come in I believe it was Wednesday or Thursday of last week and he was saying he thinks that you know the evidence he's seeing is is that we're going to have a soft Landing from inflation meaning that we're not going
25:22 to go into a recession as a result of what the Federal Reserve is doing to combat inflation um you know again who knows um with due respect to the president uh he doesn't have a crystal ball either right so um now he does have what's called moral suasion which which is a policy tool right and so to the extent that we believe we're gonna have a soft landing and act in accordance with that it makes it more likely that there will be a soft Landing right
25:57 um just as if we believe that inflation is going to heat back up it's more likely that inflation will heat back up because if we think inflation is going to get higher we're more likely to demand an increase in pay and as the cost of of Labor goes up so then uh producers uh increase the prices that people pay for their products and services so all of this plays in together um and again no Crystal Ball but it seems to be the consensus that
26:33 um we are going to continue to see inflation heading into next year um is it going to be you know in the seven to eight percent range the way it's been this year um I I I don't know I would hope that it would at least moderate to maybe five six percent which is a little bit more manageable um I I guess you know we'll have to keep our eye on um the Federal Reserve primarily in in that question um there probably won't be a lot of fiscal policy meaning legislation happening that will affect inflation going forward and so it's really going
27:08 to be up to the Federal Reserve to to tame that and uh so you know with without great without additional fiscal stimulus to inflation hopefully um a people's um uh expectations about inflation will moderate and as I was saying a minute ago um to a certain extent our expectations can actually influence what what happens so um and that's one of the reasons why by the way I'm sharing this information so you can to a certain extent formulate
27:44 your own expectations about where where you think things are going to be going as we head into 2023. all right so that's that's the election in fiscal policy that's monetary policy so then um other things are in play okay we still have a war going on in Ukraine um it's it's hard to see any kind of off-ramp right now um the ukrainians have been pretty successful um against the Russians
28:19 um they've pushed um the Soviet not the Soviet the Russian army um out of uh kirshan um which frankly I think nobody would have thought that three months ago now one of the reasons they've been able to do that is they've gotten a lot of support from the United States from Europe especially Poland and and the UK um and uh and you know you know so so that has things like kmars and tanks and such so those have allowed them to go on the offensive
28:55 um against the Russians who who don't have um the level of sophistication of their equipment now the Russians are getting drones from Iran um and those drones are are pretty sophisticated um and and you know how uh Ukraine will be able to respond to that I I think the the you know the the jury is still out um the United States and Europe both have the capability to respond whether we're going to give that capability to Ukraine in any kind of uh size that will um render the Drone threat
29:33 um essentially moot it's hard to say um you know as of this broadcast right it's the day after a missile landed in Poland right and there's discussion Russia is saying we didn't do it we didn't do it um and in fact I believe the official U.S position is that the the direction from which the missile came would tend to indicate it didn't come from Russia or the Russians um presumably you know people who study this stuff know that but um as you know the first casualty in war is truth right so I I think you know we don't know yet
30:09 where um that that attack came from what's important is Poland is a member of NATO and by the NATO agreement having been attacked Poland does have the authority to invoke um a a security Conference of the other members of NATO now by the way um that doesn't mean that you know the other members of NATO you know need to go to war uh on behalf of Poland um that's one of the reasons why a conference um you know gets called
30:45 and and you know one would hope we're not going to see a major escalation in in the war um uh you know happening in Ukraine um but I would say that you know it can't be ruled out conclusively um we're gonna have to see how how you know all this plays out now so that's one so so and the reason that's important is um Europe's uh ability to obtain energy um has been um reduced by the war in Poland um I'm Sorry by the war in Ukraine there's no war in Poland sorry the the
31:22 let me let me make sure I'm being clerics I don't want you know any Miss statement to get out there um Europe's ability to get the energy it needs especially for the winter has been reduced by the war in Ukraine um as well um there have been intermittent interruptions to Ukraine's ability to get grain out to the world markets which obviously has an impact on the world's ability to feed ourselves um and and so um this will play somewhat into the question we were we were discussing a few minutes ago about inflation
31:58 um you know so far it looks like um you know even turkey which which has a significant hand in Grain shipments coming out of Ukraine um is is you know in favor of that continuing um but if that were to change you know we could we could potentially see increased uh inflation heating up again or heating up higher um in in food prices um not to mention of course what would happen if there's you know a lack of of grain to to feed people right and then we start talking about salmon Etc which
32:33 is the the money issue aside we're talking about now you know human lives so um I I think we need to watch developments there carefully now um the Ukrainian president uh zielinski has said um he is open to negotiating based on certain three conditions my read of those preconditions is they're they're not acceptable to Russia I haven't read about any response Russia has made to to that that offer um and um one would imagine that you know since Russia is in a
33:09 withdrawal posture right now um they may not be so willing to negotiate because they would feel they're negotiating from a place of weakness let alone you know negotiating based on the preconditions that um president zielinski outlines so um although uh um Boris Johnson the former prime minister of the UK has uh came at an editorial in the Wall Street Journal yesterday the day before saying um he thinks you know Ukraine should not be pressed to negotiate it doesn't
33:45 appear that there's a whole lot of that there's a road to that right now um you know I don't see uh Russia coming to the negotiating table at this point um in in the position they're currently at now if things were to turn around militarily for the Russians um so then you know they might be more willing to come to the table feeling they're coming from a position of strength um and and so something might change so I would say that the impact that the war is having on the world economy is is is probably not going to change in the
34:21 short term um and and you know I I don't see any end in sight right now to the war um come what February of next year it'll have been going on for a year um and you know there's lots of things that could happen it could heat up it could cool down so it becomes just a sort of an ongoing low-level conflict that's that's not unusual in in the wars that Russia has waged against um Afghanistan chechnya Etc so um I think we're you know we're we're going to continue to see the
34:57 impacts of that on the world economy which means that um uh you know energy production is likely to stay um at a lower level than it has been which will you know keep Energy prices from moderating significantly um and and you know so there you have it I mean energy is a cost of everything in the economy right again I'm not talking about whether fossil fuels are good or bad we can talk about that over you know a bourbon I'm just saying the reality is um this is what's going on and and
35:32 there's no short-term transition um out of of uh you know in a world economy that is largely dependent on oil and natural gas that that and and coal even that's just the reality of where we are five ten years from now maybe things will be different who knows but but in the short term not nothing probably that's going to significantly change that so we've got um um some some you know moderate changes on a fiscal level with probably some gridlock and and so big changes not happening fiscal policy is likely to
36:08 continue pretty much like it has been for the last um year or so um an international scene where it's probably unlikely we're going to see big changes in postures between countries going forward um and you know again as as I'm talking there's a summit going on between President Biden and Chinese president XI supposedly this is to de-escalate things between these two countries um you know again I'll repeat it one more time no Crystal Ball but I I think we have to you know assume that we're
36:45 not going to see a significant scaling back of the tensions between China and America there are certain uh issues between the countries like Taiwan that you know if America were to were to um a a sea to China's position on Taiwan that would be a major betrayal of of the Taiwanese people by America I don't see that happening and I don't see President XI um you know assenting to the American position on Taiwan um he can't do that he has doubled and tripled down on the idea that Taiwan is
37:20 is part of Greater China and and will be reunit reunified with the mainland China and and that's that so on that issue I I don't know where I don't know where compromise is you know um and the idea that China would become this sort of autonomous governing province of China the way Hong Kong was well you know I think the Taiwanese have looked at Hong Kong and said nope if we ever thought that that was a possibility it's not anymore because you know Hong Kong is no longer an autonomously governing province of China so I I don't
37:56 see a route there to any change and so um you know on the major International scale just not a lot of basis for for um significant change now you know there is the unrest going on in Iran and um you know so far there hasn't been absolutely Draconian crackdowns although a lot of people have been killed um I've read a hundred I've read you know several hundred it's hard to know we're probably not getting completely accurate information on that
38:31 um if the Iranian government were to fall so um you know that could cause a fairly significant um uh could cause fairly significant change on on the world front um especially if the incoming government in Iran were to stop being hostile to Saudi Arabia stop being hostile to the other um Gulf Arab countries stop being hostile perhaps even to Israel so we
39:06 would be seeing um one of the most significant realignments in the middle east and south Asia certainly of my lifetime I was uh what 18 or 19 when the shaw fell and and and the current sort of Middle Eastern uh the the for the last con you know kind of significant Middle Eastern shift this is not to downgrade the Abraham Accords that that has been uh tremendously significant shift um but when we talk about the government changing in Iran so um that would be um that would give
39:41 Saudi Arabia a major opportunity to review um their international relations because they're number one what they view as their number one threat would be gone and so their Reliance on the United States as a partner in their defense could be reduced significantly and so then their need to um cooperate with us on any kind of economic issues including oil production could be significantly reduced um and and one might imagine that the
40:16 Saudis will take a more independent stand uh visiting the United States anyway um going forward um so so there are some possibilities that on the um International front there could be some changes but I think nothing that's going to have a very dramatic impact on you know the economy here in the United States given where we're at in terms of politics economic issues ETC so what does that mean then for our professional lives well
40:52 we are seeing in the in the technology sectors some very significant layoffs um and not only layoffs but hiring freezes so um Google uh Twitter uh Facebook um I'm sorry not Google uh Amazon uh Twitter Facebook thousands tens of thousands of people laid off and and and with with no Prospect of any kind of significant hiring coming from three of the biggest players in that sector um so you know I I I would say you know as as as one looks forward career-wise
41:31 um technology a a job at one of the large technology companies is probably less likely now than it has been for quite some time having said that um and although there has been a reduction in capital available for technology startups um it there's still quite a bit of money out there and so the startup scene at least to my read stay is staying very robust um and so while the the sort of you know really high paying uh jobs the the
42:06 prestigious jobs at the big tech companies may be drying up at least in the short term um there are still opportunities out there in uh you know in in the technology sector um I know one of the ventures that I'm advising on um you know they're they're looking at how they want to um you know handle their technology issues do they want to bring someone in-house do they want to um contracted out but either way see right there and this is a little you know tiny thing but you know there's
42:42 there's more opportunity there for you know programmers and data scientists Etc so so I think the the the the down scaling um by the big companies um while obvious you know look you know I'm sure you I'm not sure but you may have heard the old adage um a recession is when your neighbor loses his job a depression is when you lose your job right so I'm I'm not minimizing the impact on all the people who have lost their jobs at the big companies certainly for them um that that is a a huge disruption to their lives having said that
43:18 um I I think they could be you know relatively optimistic going forward that they're going to be able to find new positions and new positions um you know probably fairly quickly um it may not be you know at a big company like the ones they were at like the ones they were laid off from but there's probably opportunity out there Mike they have to take a pay cut it may be maybe to be honest I don't track uh technology sector salaries um but I you know typically startups don't necessarily pay as much for talent
43:53 as established companies and given that established companies um are are you know laying people off and freezing hirings so now the startups are not having to compete with the larger established companies for personnel and so that would give them potentially more negotiating leverage when it comes to compensation packages and so one might expect that we'll see kind of a moderating in what people can uh earn working in the technology sector so so that's kind of that sector now the
44:28 flip side is um as the Trend toward reshoring grows um and in one of the big um the the big piece of legislation um I believe it I believe it was in the inflation reduction act there was um uh large uh subsidies for uh the building of uh electric vehicles so one part of that um does not allow vehicles to use batteries made in China
45:04 right so China is Far and Away the largest source of batteries for electric vehicles and none of this funding can be used to buy batteries from China so that means the ability to build batteries is going to have to be built up other places either here in the U.S or and I don't know the details of the bill in terms of whether it would be allowed in other countries but in other countries so that would tend to indicate here's this huge pile of money right that
45:39 the opportunity for sophisticated manufacturing is going to grow here in the United States so for people who you know have a desire to work in that sector opportunity is is increasing okay so even as we're seeing certain workers shifting from you know out of the big tech companies in other areas the demand for workers continues to increase excuse me now of course the challenge is um someone who's been let's say in marketing for Facebook
46:14 they're probably not going to go and get a job building batteries for you know Tesla those are different uh you know uh skill sets so how all that's going to play out I I can't say I believe there is funds for retraining in that same bill but of course retraining takes time and people may not want to be retrained so you know the trend in employment in the United States over the last 10 to 20 years has been for people to pursue something they will enjoy doing right and while there
46:52 are lots of people who enjoy working with their hands and so um you know they would welcome the opportunity to maybe be manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles and then a lot of people who they just don't want to do that and and you know they they won't because it doesn't it doesn't give them self-satisfaction and so and self-satisfaction is a big driver in what's happening in the labor market here in this country so people are you know as likely to opt out of working period as they are I think to take a job that they don't want especially if
47:28 they're younger they can go maybe go back to living with their parents or um you know maybe they can rely on a spouse and just sort of contract their standard of living people are my read is people are much more willing to do that these days than they were in the past I know my generation you know when you got to a certain level of standard of living the idea of going back down again was essentially anathema um and and I I you know I I don't know what the statistics are nationally but I do hear at least anecdotally often about younger people who
48:04 um are quite willing to you know downsize their lives in order to pursue a new professional Avenue or maybe even just to take time off do some traveling or whatever so the labor market remains tight historically and despite all the despite inflation and despite layoffs happening in the tech sector we're not really seeing a big increase in unemployment so how that's going to play out in the months ahead I
48:39 think it's very difficult to say um the the the times we're living through I don't know of any time period in the last 100 years similar to this where we had high inflation very low unemployment um you know coming out of a major disruption like covid-19 um people's savings are still pretty high from a lot of the transfers from the government that they got um during the covid time period which is you know
49:15 one of the things that's allowing people to sit on the sidelines uh work wise um hard to say how this is all going to play out there there I don't think there's a you know there's much of any historic precedence for saying well it's almost for sure going to work out this way um and I think anybody who says well you know we're going to be in recession in 2023 if they're that certain I would discount what they're saying if they're saying we might and here's why I think we might probably worth listening to on the other hand um you know if people say I think we're going to have a soft landing and here's
49:51 why okay that's someone I would like to hear from if someone says oh no we're gonna have a soft Landing no doubt about it it's like okay um I don't know how you can be that certain so I I would say astew the certainty and listen to the people who um you know have a a point to make about which direction they they think the economy is going to go and and weigh their arguments against your own situation uh from my perspective um and I'm gonna I'm gonna wrap up with
50:26 this um I think that um if if you are um you know unhappy in your job um especially if you've lost ground in your purchasing power because of inflation I think it's still a good time to be looking around for better opportunity there's no doubt that wages have gone up um I may have mentioned this in a previous uh broadcast you know one of the questions that I still haven't seen
51:03 answered um over the over this this past year is we've had inflation which implies that purchasing power is declining and yet for the most part we haven't seen huge shifts away from consumption people have bought down in some cases but all in all consumption has stayed very very strong which would tend to indicate that people haven't lost as much buying power as inflation would tend to indicate so has
51:38 it been the case that enough people have been able to either negotiate big enough salary increases at their current jobs or switch jobs with a big enough pay increase that they've been able to either stay on par with inflation or maybe get ahead of it a little bit or maybe just fall a little bit behind it so it doesn't impact them as much I haven't seen any discussions about that I don't know if the data is not available I don't know if it's just something people are not clued into but you know until we know that I think it's very hard to say
52:13 um really how much purchasing power people are actually losing so I I would say that you know again if you're someone who has been impacted by your income not keeping Pace with inflation I think it's you know it's still a good time to start looking around looking at what other opportunity is out there seeing you know where have pay scales gone relative to where you're at and if you find that people in similar jobs are making you know more than you are so it may be time to go to your employer and say hey look here here's the data I went
52:48 on indeed or Glassdoor or whatever and here's here's people with with my job in a similar area here's what they're making here's what I'm making uh you know I think it's I think we need to discuss arrays and or apply for those other jobs maybe it's time to make a change let's be honest we do not live in an era of Lifetime employment at one company any company who expects that from their employees and and at the same time does it make a concerted effort to see to it that their employees compensation keeps on Pace or
53:25 better with inflation is kidding themselves okay I know I had um several Sailors come to me uh when I was a chaplain of of the air wing and we were on the carrier and they were very torn because things that the Navy was doing just didn't sit well with them um economically or otherwise um and yet they felt a loyalty to the Navy they didn't want to leave it and and they you know they said hey you know rabs
54:00 what's your advice and my advice to them as much as I love the Navy and and respect what the Navy does is you know what there always comes a time in your Navy career when the Navy says to you thank you for your service don't let the door hit your backside as you leave because we don't want to have to repaint the door and they're basically that dispassionate about it and so you know the Loyalty from the Navy is is really not there
54:36 um the way evidently it was during the time my father was in the Navy and so I think you know their loyalty was somewhat misplaced if they had come to the conclusion that the Navy just wasn't serving their interests in equal measure any longer and indeed um I think most of them ended up moving on um to to their benefit to their benefit and and and that's just the reality of it so um you know many times we feel loyalty to our
55:11 employers especially if at some point in our life they really you know were there for us and I'm not saying to Discount that on the other hand I think you know we need to sometimes step back and look at the bigger picture can you afford the continual loss in purchasing power that it might take to stay in the job where you're currently at so look the best time to be searching for a job is when you still have a job okay far and away if you are currently employed you are much more desirable to other employers than if you are not
55:48 employed especially in today's job market where it's so tight it's like why are you not employed if you want a job you can get one right so um I I know a lot of employers frown on employees who Job Shop while they're still working for them I mean come on let's let's not be foolish here um if that's their expectation then they need to have an open door policy so that when employees feel like it may be time to Job Shop instead of doing that they can come in and say here here's my situation we need to work something out so so that's on the the job front and
56:24 again the best way to job hunt is just start talking to people in the industry you're either in and want to stay in or are in the industry that you want to get into just talk to them you have to tell them I'm looking for a job don't tell them that just talk to them about what's going on what kind of opportunity what kind of prospects do they see for the future build those relationships and you and and you will see what comes from them okay and you may decide after talking to a lot of people hey you know what actually I've got it pretty good I don't want to leave good good it's excellent that you did that homework so to speak um and you can sleep better at night
57:00 knowing that you've looked after yourself or you and your family um better and on the business start up front there was never a bad time to start a business that's just the reality businesses have been started during the Great Depression they've been started at the height of economic activity that some have succeeded some have failed if you've got a good idea and you're willing to work hard and you're willing to work smart and you can muster the resources you need you can start a successful business if
57:37 you're willing to go through the vicissitudes that everyone who starts a business goes through in the beginning you can start a business okay and starting a business may be the right alternative by the way to a job situation you have that that you're unhappy about maybe you can become a contractor to the company so you have more freedom to run your life the way you want to run it while still remaining a financial connection and a service connection to that company and and that may work out well I I know lots of people have done that from lawyers to Consultants across the board in business
58:14 Etc et cetera so those opportunities are always a possibility so I I invite you uh um maybe two three weeks ago I did a show on um you know what what employment sectors are good where starting a business is good I invite you to watch that episode if you haven't already and take a look at that and um I I think there's you know overall there's reason for optimism in our professional lives going forward there's lots of opportunity out there because the job market is still still so strong there's lots of opportunity for starting
58:49 businesses and we're probably less likely to see things get off track because of legislation and Regulation and other economic factors they're probably going to be fairly similar to the last couple of years and so you know overall I think we have good reason to believe that overall we're we're going to be okay and so that's that's what I leave you with I I you know if you have questions please let me know if you disagree with me even better let me know tell me why tell me why you think my analysis is wrong I I'd like to hear that I'm I never you know want people to
59:25 think merely because it came out of my mouth it's it's correct I'm making the analysis as best as I can based on my experience my knowledge Etc so let me know so that's it for today thank you very much for joining me I hope you found this useful um and I just want to say if if you have an interesting way of making a living let me know or if you know of someone who has an interesting way of making a living let me know my contact information will be in the show notes posted uh not long after this show posts on on the various media and let me know
60:00 about that and so I got just a few seconds left to say as I always do Marie darling my dear friend you are still my bell thank you all very much for watching look forward to seeing you next week 12 30 Pacific uh 3 30 Eastern time and an hour in for the other two time zones bye now foreign