0:00 Who are you? And where are you going? What do you want? Hello and welcome to People Making Money. I don't know what goes on with this setup. Every time the microphone secretly moves, it's okay. There we go. So, I'm your host, Kevin Bemel, and I'm here every Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time to
0:36 talk about job hunting, uh, starting and running a business, and building wealth. So, the whole financial side of life. And if you saw the show yesterday, see, I have the Snappy Pattern Media sign back in its proper place. Did you notice me glancing over my shoulder because it was annoying me? Yes. Well, you know, so much for uh being OCD. So today is our uh monthly economic echoes uh episode and uh I mean unless you have been living in a cave as
1:12 they say you know that the government was shut down for about a month and a half and so the government the labor the the department of labor has not published uh economic data in in all that time and indeed I I checked earlier this morning they still hadn't. So I want to start out by talking about this idea that we have that somehow if the government has published the data it is therefore reliable. And this is this is not so
1:48 much coming from me, but uh I I recommend to you the uh very short podcast that UBS, which is a Swiss company that a Swiss it's a large Swiss uh investment bank uh that is um at last report considering moving here to the United States um because of how the Swiss government is treating them. So their chief economist, Paul Donovan, talks about this topic pretty regularly. I would say I listen to him five days a week, every weekday.
2:26 Like I said, the podcast is short, four, five, six, seven minutes at the most. And uh in addition to the fact that his humor is very dry and droll, he's just hilarious. Uh it's it's hilarious to listen to him. Uh he highlights periodically that because of a number of factors including how difficult it is to get people to respond to surveys. Um, government data
3:02 is not necessarily accurate or at least any more accurate any more accurate than, you know, potentially other sources of data might be. And he he cites in particular things like employment statistics uh and and and and such. uh the government is reliant on employers filling out surveys. The number of employers willing to do that has shrunk dramatically over the last I think it's been 10 20 years. And so the reliability
3:39 of this data is is not anywhere near as high as it as it might have been in in previous decades. And so I I think we get uh perhaps a false sense of the economy if if all we look at is the Department of Labor's uh Department of Labor, you know, data, uh whether it's employment statistics, whether it's the CPI, etc. And so what I'm going to be doing on economic echoes here on out is
4:15 using multiple data sources to look at, I think, fewer aspects of um of the the economic data, but the ones that are probably most relevant to us as we live our daily lives and run our businesses and such. So today I'm going to introduce to you I think three new data sources uh that that we're going to take a look at. I'm going to uh kind of orient us to them and and then hopefully starting
4:50 next month uh in in December I'll be able to start showing you how the data compares with government statistics because the most recent CPI statistic for example is is still for August. We we talked about that uh uh you know la two months ago in September. uh same with the the labor various labor statistics. So, um, you know, I want to give us a feel for some of the alternatives out there. And, you know,
5:25 here here's the thing. Uh, it's very costly to gather this data, but there are a lot of private organizations that have a tremendous amount of money. And while critics complain that they're biased, etc., etc., etc., Uh I I I I don't know that we could claim that government statistics are unbiased per se. Not in the way we think of that. So and this has nothing to do with complaints about leveled at the current administration for example having
6:02 changed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Uh it has been the case for quite some time that um you know government is inherently political. Okay, it doesn't matter you know who who is president, which party controls Congress. These are just the realities of uh any government system. And so I think we we we'll be much better off if we draw data from multiple sources.
6:38 Uh just like hopefully we do our news. Uh because news too has always been biased. I I talked to people say, "Oh, I I long for the days when, you know, Walter Kankite reported news." Well, I was alive when Walter Kankite was still reporting the news on I think it was CBS every night. And my impression as a child was, you know, where we're getting the news straight. But the reality is even Walter Konhite had his biases. And so if we want to truly understand what's going on, we need to gather our news from a range of sources
7:17 so that we can get a sense of what's what's really going on. I'm not going to do too deep a dive into this, but uh I I did listen to a podcast now. I think it was maybe a few weeks ago, and the fellow was talking about how um a a a statistic or a piece of news will be released. And what'll happen is most of the major news, you know, reporting groups, whatever you want to call them, will all pick up on that one piece of data and
7:53 then they'll all report it and it looks like it's coming from multiple sources when indeed it's only coming from one source. and and that's that's very problematic because we think we're getting multissourced confirmed news, but indeed according to this gentleman uh we're not. I I will say by the way that uh he certainly exhibited uh no bias toward you know what I would consider to be you know my perspective on politics and the news. uh which isn't
8:29 to say that he he didn't he agreed or disagreed with me only that he wasn't overtly uh you know he wasn't giving an you know he wasn't doing this from a a partisan perspective he was doing his best to present this as as just this is this is how news gathering works so I I I think the same is somewhat true of the gathering of statistics and the reporting thereof. So, we need to we need to garner data from multiple
9:05 sources if we want to truly know what's going on. So, I'm going to start out today by uh sharing with you if I can find it. Uh where did it go? Oh, here we go. Okay. So, this is an alternate source for data on inflation, an alternative to the consumer price index that's published by the Bureau of Labor Statistic. It's called true inflation. You got to love
9:40 the name, right? They they want you to this is the true inflation picture, right? So, and and by the way, um this is being uh updated at least in concept in real time. So, let's just real quickly here, let's put the val there. Okay, so you see that there it goes. It pops up again. Okay, it it didn't change. I mean, when they say, you know, when it says real time, I don't know if they really if they actually mean, you know, sort of second by second or minute by minute. uh but in but in any uh event uh according to
10:16 trueflation okay the current uh inflation what they call index is 2.58% and it's up 04%. Now it's a little bit weird because we think of up is good and down is bad but there and and and green is good but and red is bad. Um, in this case, uh, the the red and the green refer to, you know, good or bad trend. So, I just realized, let me let me open this up for you so you can see it better. There you go. Okay. So, uh, you can see that it's
10:53 an up arrow, but it's in red because it went up, you know, 400s of a percent. So, from trueflation's standpoint, higher inflation is bad. So, up is bad. Um, and if you look here over to the side where you see the producer price index, you'll see that it went down half a percent which is in green which is good. So just the way they look at it, you know, lower inflation good, so green, higher inflation bad, red, you know, um, that that's kind of a philosophical discussion, but just so we
11:30 can understand uh what uh, you know, at what we're looking. Okay. So, and by the way, and and so then they they put here below US government reported rate 3%. You know, that's got to be from uh August because the government hasn't reported a rate. So, they're giving a comparison right there. They're saying the actual inflation rate is lower than what the government is reporting. Now this uh US inflation rate is based on their survey of a a whole range of
12:07 products and services. Okay. So let's let's take a look at this detail here. I think this is what it's going to show. Okay. So so this this shows you this kind of shows you you know what has been happening. uh you know from their perspective with inflation uh in January. It was up over 3%. Um it kind of hit its low point uh here in on April 6 at 1.22%. Um and now it's been climbing since then and it's now at 2.58%. Okay, so this is the true inflation rate. If we look at Oh, I Okay, I'd have
12:44 to get a membership to look at these other ones. Uh I I I I may consider uh you know doing that. So uh so this this is a you know an al alternative. Let's look at the let's see if they're going to give us composition. I think they are. Okay. So here's here's you know different products. So uh food and beverages you can see uh is at 2 and a half%. That's up from 2% a year earlier. Okay, let's see. Housing uh was at 1.57%
13:21 a year ago. It's now at 65%. Uh transportation down from 3.89% to 1.88%. Okay. And this is as these are as of today. Utilities, you can see went way down and now they're way back up. So, they were at 7.56% a year ago. Now, they're at 10 almost 10.4%. Healthcare. Okay. Same kind of thing. Um although still at a much lower rate. So,
13:59 a year ago, a little under 3.4. Today, they're at 3%. Okay. Yeah. uh household and daily items. Okay. And you can see by the way why people are feeling pinched because uh two things I'm sorry where was utilities here? That's what I was looking for. So utilities have even you know they they declined a lot almost to zero right to point4% in in July they were at half you know at 500s now they've jumped way back
14:34 up to 10.39%. Okay, so that's going up pretty quickly. Household and daily items were lower at about 2 and a.5%. Now they're back up here at over 4%. Okay. Um alcohol and tobacco, I guess these are the the sin, you know, purchases, right? They were a little over 2% a year ago, 2.4. Now they're at three almost 3.7, although they did spike above 5% the very beginning of the year. clothing. Okay, it was just a little over 1%. Now the it's at over 5%. Right. So a lot of
15:12 the things here's communication, you know, is is is is actually has been deflating at the from a year ago. It's at the same deflation rate. It did get up to about 1%. Um but but communication isn't doesn't look like it's a big factor according to this information. Education too has has been about flat over the last year even though it's you know kind of gone up and down. Recreation and culture okay it went from 1% to 2.7 4%. So not not not a whole you know big change and then finally others
15:48 which is basically the things like personal care and product services. So they were at 3.2 and now they're at 3.15. So again not not heavily changed year-over-year. Um but you can see uh because of household and daily items where inflation has increas increased significantly and utilities where although it was at almost 8% a year ago now it's at almost 10.4. So these are the kind of things I think that make um Americans uh you know feel pinched um as we talk about you know overall
16:24 inflation. By the way you'll notice down here relative importance. So this gives you an idea of I think the the percentage they make up of of budgets. So food makes up a little over 7%, utilities almost 6%, housing 23%. Okay. Uh food and beverages 15%. So between food and beverages and housing that's that's 38. Utilities 44. other daily household items. Those four things make up 50% of household budgets. Okay?
17:00 And while overall food h hasn't in the inflation rate on food has not increased very much year-over-year uh it it you know other things uh have. Okay. Um and uh it but it is interesting housing has gone down uh to point well housing's gone down maybe 9/10en of a percent. So even though it makes up a huge amount of our budgets um you know the the slowing of the increase in housing and and in the increase at which housing costs have have increased hasn't
17:37 really helped us out a whole lot. Okay. So this is the kind of alternative information that's available and uh let's see we'll look at the fact sheet here so you can see what's here. Okay so you can see um you know this week uh performance oh performance versus a week ago 2.55% up 03% versus a year ago it was 2.6%. So indeed overall inflation has been pretty steady year-over-year but you can see that it
18:13 had gone way down and has come uh you know way back up and I think that's what most of us are feeling is we had gotten to the point where we felt maybe like you know we we're getting our our budgets under control um but but now uh you know we're feeling them starting to increase again and so that that's, you know, that's problematic. Okay, so that gives you an a a sense of what's going on with inflation even though, you know, the consumer price index is is not available. Okay,
18:50 so now let's look at uh employment trends. So um last month we did look at the ADP National Employment Report. You'll hear all kinds of comments about it's good, it's bad, it's this, it's that. Uh, you know, I I I ADP is the largest uh payroll um company in in the world. I believe they have a lot of data to draw on that they atomize uh or I should say anatomize
19:25 uh you know they're not reliant on employers reporting data because they already have the employers data themselves. So I I think there's you know there's good reason to be looking at the ADP national employment report. This is the employment employment report for October. Like with the Bureau of Labor Statistics data, it is p it is published uh you know it's reported you know a month later um because the information has to be compiled and and and analyzed etc. So according to ADP
20:03 private employers added 42,000 jobs in October. Okay. Now, one of the differences between ADP and the Bureau of Labor Statistics is the Bureau of Labor Statistics posts uh job data for government and non-government whereas this is focused purely on private employers. So uh and and while it has not been the case since President Trump came into office, if you were watching the show last year, you saw that it was
20:39 growth in government jobs or governmentf funded jobs that was really uh fueling job growth uh in 2024. here in 2025. Um because the number of government jobs at the federal level has been shrinking. Uh though offset by the growth in local and state government jobs, overall job growth has not been happening because of growth in government jobs, it really has been uh due to growth in the private sector. And so the fact that we saw
21:15 42,000 private sector jobs last month seems to me to be a a pretty good sign. So you see here last month delivered a rebound from two months of weak hiring. Um but the brown the bounce wasn't broad-based. So education and healthcare trade and transportation utilities led growth. Um and for the third month employers shed jobs in business professionals professional business services information and leisure and hospitality. Okay. Now I will say that education and health care jobs generally
21:50 speaking are uh fueled shall we say by uh spending that comes from the government. So part of kind of quote unquote government government job growth is reflected in these statistics but just not growth in actual government jobs. Okay. So you can see this chart which starts in 2010. Um there was about 107,000 private sector jobs as of January 2010. Here in
22:25 October of 2025, we have 134,571,000 jobs. So there's been an increase of about 28 million jobs over the last 15 years. More importantly, since uh 2022, there's been an increase of about 4 million jobs. Okay. Uh let's look at let's let's see let's Okay. So, starting in January 2023, uh, well, actually, let's go back to here we go. October of 2022,
23:01 130,51 130,541,000 jobs. Now, we're at 134,571. So, there's been 4 million jobs created in the last two years. And let's look at here we go. Um and in the last year there's been approximately a million jobs created. That's why you're seeing this flattening out. Okay. So now of course there was a steep job creation coming out of COVID. That's that's to be expected. But the current the current
23:37 trajectory look at the look at the uh height of the curve from say you know early 210 through about uh uh 20 from till the end of 2018 that curve is somewhat like this time and then like in 2019 and and heading into COVID things flattened out we're seeing a similar flattening out now. Okay. All right. So, change by establishment size. So, the smallest businesses 19
24:13 employees or fewer lost 15,000. Interesting though, 20 to 49 employees gained 6,000, but 50 to 249 lost 25,000. 250 to 499 up 3,000. And then 500 plus went up by 73,000. So it was large companies that are really driving job growth. The small and midsized is a much more mixed picture and indeed overall these sectors saw uh job losses. So whether that's impacted because of uh
24:49 you know larger companies for example can absorb the impact of tariffs uh more easily than small and midsize companies or whether it's because of the uptick in inflation having again a a a bigger impact on small and mid-size companies. Obviously we we don't know for sure but those could be some of the factors. Okay. Where are we seeing job growth and declines? So, natural resources and mining up 7,000. That would be things like oil production. Construction saw
25:24 job growth. Manufacturing saw jobs decline. So, you know, the the Trump administration has been talking quite a bit about bringing manufacturing back to the United States, but at least so far we're not seeing those job gains. I think it's unlikely that we will see significant manufacturing job train job increases in the short term. Factories have to be built, people have to be trained, etc. So, you know, that that that's just a a factor of of the reality of the economic reality of
25:59 manufacturing. Okay. big gains in trade, transportation and utilities, financial activities and and education and health services. Big losses in information and professional business services. So you can see services were really the movers. Um smaller a smaller loss in leisure and hospitality and and and a big loss in other services. Okay. So uh when it when it comes to goods overall we saw gains when it comes to services overall we saw gains but but there were a number of
26:34 sectors that saw job losses okay so this gives you uh some similar data to what the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports uh we don't have uh as much uh granularity as the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows um in terms of well I actually I think the sectors are fairly similar uh well they don't they don't break out break out retail trade for example and wholesale trade here they're aggregated so there is some greater uh granularity uh in the Bureau of Labor
27:09 Statistic uh statistics uh but but nonetheless we can get you know at least a reasonably good picture looking at the ADP data now uh let's actually let's take let's take a break uh and I'll come back and I'm going to show you another set of labor statistics. When life brings unexpected changes, managing inherited property shouldn't add to your stress. Magnum Properties specializes in probate and trust real estate management. We handle the
27:44 complexities while you focus on what matters most. From property maintenance to tenant relations, from legal compliance to maximizing value, we're your trusted partner through every step. Magnum Properties, Inc., turning property challenges into peace of mind. Call us today at 213-264-4396 or visit magnumprops.com. Okay, so this is People Making Money and I'm your host Kevin Bemo. We're doing our monthly economic echoes episode and
28:21 I was just talking about the ADP national employment report. Now I'm going to switch to the paychecks small business report. Okay, here we go. Let's make I want to make sure that's up. Yep. Okay, so now this is focusing on businesses with fewer than 50 workers. Okay. So, we saw that segment in the ADP report. Okay. This is giving us for those of us and and I think that's a lot of people who who who watch this show, we have smaller
28:57 businesses. We may work for smaller businesses. So, this is sort of drilling down uh into this particular segment of of the the job market. Okay. Paychecks is I believe the second largest payroll supplier uh in the world. Okay. And like ADP they have a tremendous amount of data upon which they can draw. Um they use aggregated payroll data from businesses with fewer than 50 workers uh and to and they offer a monthly index
29:33 measuring the change in small business employment. Okay. So here's how it works. They're looking at it on a year-over-year basis. Okay? So, year-over-year from October of 2024 to October of 2025. Okay? If there had been no change in in the number of jobs, the index would be at 100. Okay. If there had been a gain in jobs, the index would be over a 100. And if there was a loss in jobs, then it's under 100. And you can see the index is 99.27.
30:10 Okay. So the 12 they're showing a 12 month p change of 79. These numbers don't exactly add up. There's probably some rounding errors in them. Okay. Uh but what we're seeing is that there have been job losses year-over-year uh among small businesses. Okay? And if you're looking at the three-month national trend, so in August there were some very slight gains, but September and October have been two months of job
30:45 losses for small businesses. Okay. Uh and and you can see here's the historical jobs trend index setting aside, you know, the the the the you know, COVID period here. um you know the index has been bouncing around a 102 101 to 102 since 2014 and then sort of post COVID it's the same thing 101 but now it's it's for the first time in about 10 years it's dropped below 100.
31:22 So, it dropped below 100 it looks like. Um, as of March, it it hit 100 in February, but as of March, it dropped below 100. April, it went back up to 100.02, but since then, it's been below 100. So, in terms of hiring, smaller businesses are definitely uh, you know, they're not they're not the engine of job growth that they have been in the past. Now this is giving us a regional performance. You can see that small job declines in the in the west
31:59 were the greatest. Okay. In the Midwest second, Northeast third and in the South just a quarter, you know, a quarter tick down. Okay. So, uh, the South is has really been the the strongest, meaning that they've lost, uh, the the fewest the fewest jobs in the small business sector. Okay. So, state performances, which is probably more relevant to us. So, the state with the largest job growth, okay, was North Carolina. Um and
32:34 you can see here it was led by strong gains in leisure and hospitality and construction 103 in both sectors. Okay. Ohio ranked second with 100.66. Okay. Tennessee ranked last with 97.68. Um however, you look at West Coast states like California and Washington, they weren't much better. There's been, you know, and I can tell you as someone who owns a small business in California, it is very difficult to run a business here. Taxes are high, regulation is
33:10 high, which is why uh the state has seen losses. So Maryland has also seen uh job losses as has Massachusetts, Virginia, New Jersey, okay, and and New York. All of these have seen job losses. In fact, here's a hundred. Okay, this line right here. So you can see um you know even some states in the southeast, Georgia, Florida have lost jobs. Uh however, most of the states that have lost jobs um are um states with uh high levels of
33:46 taxation um and high levels of regulation. So, Massachusetts, Maryland, California, Washington, New Jersey, New York, uh, and Michigan, and Illinois. Okay. The outliers are Tennessee. That's kind of strange. Uh, Tennessee is not known for being a high, you know, high highly regulated state. I'm not sure what exactly is going on there. uh and uh Missouri and Wisconsin also not necessarily known for you know being uh highly regulated. Now the the best
34:21 performing states again North Carolina, Ohio, Arizona is doing well. Pennsylvania, Texas, uh Indiana, Texas, and then Georgia does just not quite makes it to 100. Okay. And Florida also not quite making it to 100. So that gives you the breakdown in terms of again this is small businesses now looking from a metro area. Okay. Uh so Phoenix did the best. Okay. But Phoenix is the only metro area that was over a 100. So
34:56 uh uh uh um this is the um uh these are large metro areas by the way. So what we're seeing here is large metro areas are losing jobs. Des uh Denver is at the bottom 95.5 basically. Uh Riverside, California 96. San Francisco 98. Los Angeles 98. Seattle a little over 98. Uh Washington DC 98 and a quarter. Boston a little over 98 and a quarter. San Diego not
35:32 quite 98 and a half. Baltimore 98 half. So you can see all these large metropolitan areas. The only one that's gaining jobs in small business is Phoenix, Miami, not didn't just just fell short of breaking even. But from then on down, Philadelphia, Chicago, these large metro areas are losing small businesses. And if you look around large metropolitan areas, you can see, for example, in things like retail and restaurants, you see more and more and more and more chains, fewer and fewer local businesses. Okay? Uh and you can
36:09 see 13 of the top 20 metro areas reported a job index below 99. Okay. Um and and and you know that's very bad trend for me major uh for for metropolitan areas. Okay. Industry performance. So health and education services saw gains of 100.6 basically. Okay. Again because this is supported by government spending that that isn't so surprising. All the other sectors with respect to small businesses lost jobs.
36:46 Now, financial services, just barely, they're at 99.77. Other services, 99.63. Uh, transportation, trade, transportation, utilities, 99.5. So, there weren't big ones, but you can see once you get down to manufacturing, they're at 99. So, uh, you know, essentially like, you know, that's a 1 percentage point drop. Okay. Construction overall for small companies saw about a 1.3% drop. Business and professional services 1.4
37:22 drop. Leisure and hospitality about a 1.7% drop. Okay, this again this is looking at it year overyear. So, small businesses are again are just not according to the paycheck survey, it is they're just not the engines of job growth that they have been uh in in past times. Just want to look at something right here. Make sure that I did not lose you. Okay, good. Yeah. All right. So, now let's next look at uh median
37:57 housing prices. And here we go. Okay. So, uh this is this is uh the California housing market overview. Okay. This is this is compiled by Redf Fin. Um again, these these you know Red Fin, Zillow, they have a tremendous amount of data to draw on. Now, these we've we've looked at every month for quite a while now. Um because there is no government data published on these kinds of sectors. So, uh, this is interesting. Home prices in California
38:32 were down.13% year-over-year in October. At the same time, the number of houses sold rose 3.6% and the number of homes for sale rose 6%. Okay, so that's good news for those of us who live here in California. Median days on market has increased. Number of homes sold has increased as well, but the average price went down just a teeny bit. Okay. So, we're still, you know, kind of in the, you know, mid 800s level where they've been now for, you know, the better part of a year, year and a half. Okay. Um, you know,
39:09 after from the end of November being down below 800, I would say there's it's probably unlikely that we're ever going to see that uh those that low immedi. Okay. Um the t the 10 top 10 metro areas in California with fastest growing sales prices. Mission viejo almost 20%, Seal Beach 18, Redwood City 18, El Dorado almost 18, Samonteo 18 and and on down and then we get into Costa uh Garden Grove around 10, Whittier 10, and South
39:44 Lake Tahoe. But so some areas are seeing large increases. Okay, housing supply, we I mentioned this a moment ago, up 6%. The number of homes per sale year-over-year. Okay, number of newly listed homes is actually down uh 5% year-over-year. So, there's just, you know, there's homes, they're hanging on the market longer. And so, even though the number of new homes being listed has slowed, um homes are just not selling as fast as they were. And so you're seeing overall
40:20 an increase in homes for sale. Okay. Uh housing demand. Okay. The number of homes sold above list price 34.1% down 6.6% year-over-year. Homes sold with price drops 28.3% up 3.5%. sale to list price. It's still pretty close, but you know, it's still homes are selling overall for less than list price. And and and again, that's showing that there's some at least a little bit
40:55 of softness. Okay. The 10 most competitive cities in California, you see them listed there. And uh here we go. US migration trends. So this shows you where are people moving from the states the bluer the state the the more people are leaving that state. So you can see California tops the list followed by New York and Illinois and then a number of other states Washington uh Texas Louisiana Georgia etc. Okay where are they moving to? Again, Florida
41:31 tops the list, followed by Arizona, North Carolina, uh, uh, Tennessee, uh, and South Carolina, Idaho to a lesser extent, and Wisconsin and Michigan, and then, uh, you know, Ohio and all the rest of the states are seeing very small, um, increases in and and, you know, you look at Texas, you say, "Wait, I thought Texas was gaining." So, okay, more than two pe 2,000 people were searching to move out of Texas. Okay, so this is what this is based on is where people are located and
42:06 where they're searching homes. Okay, so it gives you a sense. Um, what are the urban areas that people are most looking potentially to move out of? Okay. Well, Los Angeles is number one, New York City number two, Washington DC number three, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, and then you see there's a big drop after Chicago when you get to Atlanta, Hartford, uh, Houston, and Dallas. Okay. And and where are they looking to move to? Well, Sacramento has topped the list for a number of of months now. I think
42:42 it's people leaving other places in California to stay in California, but get into a smaller metro area. But then after that, you're looking at Arizona, and you'll notice three of these cities are in Florida. That that pretty much stays with trends. And and by the way, you can, you know, you can search, we can look at Los Angeles. Okay, here's the Los Angeles housing. So you can search any housing market that you want and it has many of these same
43:17 statistics. Okay. Uh and so much for my theory that people from Los Angeles are moving to Sacramento. Evidently that's not the case. Primarily they're moving to Houston, Texas at least from August 25 to October 25. So it's for the previous quarter. Okay. But you can search any and all of these links as as as always will be in the show notes so you can you can take a look at that. Okay. So that's the for sale housing market. Now let's take a look at the rental housing market. Okay.
43:53 Okay. So uh this is this is um compiled from data from Zillow Rentals. Okay. And this shows you uh 10 of them. uh yeah 10 of the major markets that we can look at but you can search any market you want. Okay, if I look at Los Angeles, my hometown. Okay, month over month and yearover-year rents have gone down. Okay, uh you can see this is the breakdown of uh price range, how kind of how many rental properties there are in
44:28 a particular price range. You can see there's a lot of $5,000 plus rentals in in Los Angeles. That shouldn't be um so surprising. The rental market temperature is cool in Los Angeles. By the way, you can search, you can compare any two markets you want. Okay? And you know, you can look across all these markets. You can see rents have been relatively flat for the survey period. Okay? Let's look at I think I usually look at Omaha.
45:05 Oops, I got to say Omaha. Okay, I will learn to spell. There we go. Omaha, Nebraska. Okay, so Omaha, Nebraska, month over month went down a little bit, but year-over-year is higher. Now, look at the different profile in terms of units available. Almost everything in Omaha is at uh you know is below $3,000 a month. So even high-end um uh so there's not a huge super high-end market like there is in Los Angeles which makes sense. Okay. The market
45:41 temperature in Omaha is also cool. Okay. And you can see how it comp how segments of the market compare. Let's look at one more. I think I typically look at Miami. Okay. Miami, Florida. Okay. Uh Miami, Florida, like Los Angeles, has a a huge number of $5,000 or more per month units. Okay. The temperature in Miami market is warm, right? So, Florida still continues to be a destination for people to go. And you
46:18 can see, for example, in Glenvar Heights, the the graph is going up. Okay. uh Westwood, it's it went down, but it's come back up again. Westwood Lakes. So, you can look at any rental market you want to get a sense of what's happening with rental housing prices. Okay? And you can compare them if you're thinking you may, you know, want to move. All right. So the final thing I'm going to look at is the uh are the indices of consumer sentiment published by the uh University of uh Michigan.
46:55 Okay. And this gives this gives us a sense of how people are feeling about the economy. Okay. So the index of consumer sentiment uh is down in November to 50.3 from 53.6. Okay, that's a significant drop. And of course, it's a huge drop from a year ago when it was 71.8. So just post election, people were much more positive about the economy than they are now. And there there has been a lot of economic turmoil
47:32 over the last year. Okay. Uh now current economic conditions they're slightly uh slightly uh better uh sentiments. So 52.3 still down from uh from last month and down overall year-over-year. Okay. And then the index of consumer expectations down just slightly from last month 50.3 to 49 but again down significantly. So again there was a lot of high expectations after the election. You can
48:09 see it was at almost 77 in November of last year. Now it's down by over 36% uh to 49. We'll have to see how that plays out. um expectations for inflation generally speaking are are moderating. Okay, so year- ahead inflation expectations inched up from 4.6 last month to 4.7 this month. Very small change. Long run inflation expectations actually declined from 3.9% last month
48:45 to 3.6% in November. Okay. So, uh overall infl while inflation expectations have moderated or declined. It's the overall economic picture that people are uh about which people are concerned. And I think that reflects in in some of the headlines we're seeing in the news these days where uh you know stores are concerned about holiday sales. Uh we're seeing uh you know lack
49:20 of job growth among small businesses in particular. So all of these things give us give us a sense of what's you know really going on in the economy and more specifically which is what this show is all about what's going on in our own economy right I've mentioned this periodically uh a recession is when our neighbor loses his job a depression is when we lose our job right um you know kind of all joking aside though the economic data is important to us largely in so far as how it affects our individual
49:56 circumstances. Okay? And so as you look at as as we talk about the data, as you look at it, uh all the links are in the show notes so you can spend some time sort of focusing down on your specific location. Hopefully that will make you help you make better economic decisions as we head toward the end of 2025 and and and start getting ready for the new year 2026. So if you have any questions, comments, uh criticisms, all of my uh social media
50:31 links will be in the show notes. Feel free to uh you know post them or send them to me because my email address is there as well. And if you know someone who you think would be interested in learning about this information, I'd really appreciate it if you would send them a link to the show and I' I'd love to have the chance to gain them as a subscriber. So, let's see. Uh, tomorrow at 5:00 p. p.m. Pacific time is my show, Jiggers's Place. We'll have a we'll have a cocktail and a smoo as we head into
51:07 the end of the week. So, I hope you'll join me there. And then next week, which is Thanksgiving Day week, I'll have a regular slate of shows, all at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time, Trust and Estates Weekly on Monday, business lessons from the military on Tuesday, and the next episode of People Making Money next Wednesday. So, I thank you again for joining me. Wishing you a wonderful rest of the day, and signing off as I always do. Marie darling, you are my bell. Courage at all times.