The WAY to WOW Shows
Dealing with Intelligence Uncertainty
November 7, 2023
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[0:13] hello and welcome to business lessons from the military I'm your host Kevin bamel and we are here every Tuesday at 11:00 am Pacific time that's 2 pm on the East Coast if I if my calculations are correct and we talk about military Doctrine history the attributes and and philosophies of great military leaders and translate that into um things that we can do in our professional and business lives to make them more successful so for the last um I think

[0:51] two or three weeks we've been talking about intelligence the Spy versus spy kind and how we can use that um to um better direct our our businesses and so um as as is every good um uh presentation from a military standpoint you you have to have a PowerPoint that's first thing you learn in the military is got to have a PowerPoint so they they jokingly call it

[1:26] Death by PowerPoint although hopefully not EX ex so here we are business lessons from the military and it doesn't want to advance that way so um everything we do on the way to wow shows relates to the three pillars of attainment and we deal primarily in the finances Realm of the Pursuits pillar um however in anything in business these days we're going to be dealing with relationships friends and colleagues primarily um but often often times family members as well and and

[2:03] many business issues resonate on an identity level um so you know you will he hear people say I'm an entrepreneur right that's part of their identity and of course mindset is is is crucial um in in the professional realm so we talked about in in previous shows we talked about the objective of intellig of intelligence um we defined it and we talked about the challenge of intelligence which is that in Intelligence on a competitor will never

[2:40] be as concrete as knowledge that the competitor has about himself or the knowledge that we have about our own business and so there's an inherent um unevenness if you will or discrepancy between the two so if you want to um hear or view those shows please go to um our YouTube channel youtube.com theeway toow and you can view not only those past shows but um I think we're getting close to 200 uh shows from the various Seasons um that

[3:17] that we have produced So today we're going to talk about dealing with the challenge of intelligence and it really breaks down into four four um four uh aspects okay and and and and they they kind of build on each other okay so often times we think of intelligence I like like I said I jokingly make the Spy versus spy reference you know as as the Gathering

[3:53] of information right and and that's that's you know that's the sole um function of intelligence but that's that's not really correct in fact the easiest part of the intelligence process can be the Gathering of information often times it's gathered from on a military level it's gathered from what are called open sources which means reading news you know the enemy's newspapers or probably not newspapers today of course but reading websites and and uh social media

[4:29] posts Etc of of the enemy so for people in the military for example um they are trained do not post on your social media things like when your ship is leaving port or what port the ship is going to be calling on in next right because um there's there's no benefit to the ship and and to the Navy and and therefore to the military in America for America's adversaries to have that information now it it's a

[5:07] little bit different in the business world because we need to Market ourselves advertise ourselves in order to obtain customers and clients right so we're putting out information um and and it's available for any of our competitors to to get ah hold of however uh we certainly are not you know posting on uh social media um what what our future plans may be or you know some proprietary formula or or

[5:43] information about an you know a new technology that we've developed so that other people can copy it right so while there are open sources we have access to in the business World there are there are just like in the military many things that that we keep uh private or secret however you want to describe that that could be um delerious if not devastatingly um devastating to to our businesses okay um nonetheless the the the in the business world as well the

[6:19] obtaining of information is probably the easiest part right and and we can do a lot of that just sitting at a computer these days now we may uh you know if our if our competitor is is for example a retailer so we may go to his stores and and you know check them out and look at the state of cleanliness of the stores the organization the product ranges that are there Etc okay so we we W necessarily always get our information from um you know sitting at a computer on the flip side um for publicly traded

[6:56] companies because they are required by the SEC to uh periodically make disclosures about their business so that all shareholders and potential shareholders um have equal access to information so again there's a that's a tremendous uh information resource you can go to What's called Edgar it's it's basically the um the uh website for the SEC where um these various reports 10ks 8ks Etc are posted you can get a lot of

[7:31] information um about companies uh publicly traded companies okay by going to those sites and indeed one of the reasons why sometimes companies don't go public is because they don't want to have to make those kinds of periodic public disclosures okay but the but again the easiest part of the intelligence process is obtaining the information but once you have the information what does it mean okay and so the the first Big Challenge then well the next big challenge I

[8:06] should say comes with properly interpreting all this information that you have so there's a a famous um um intelligence situation um connected with the Battle of Midway in World War II uh where um the uh the United States Navy intercepted some Communications by the Imperial Japanese Navy that led them to think that um the the that there was an attack being planned on Midway or to

[8:43] take Midway right and the the problem was they they couldn't be sure so what they did was they planted some false information about um Midway having trouble with fresh water I believe it was and they then you know mon continued to monitor the Imperial japaneses um Communications to see if if this issue popped up in Communications that they had pre you know in in the same realm as the communications they had previously intercepted knowing that if it did then

[9:20] then indeed they were correct in in interpreting that there was an attack that was being planned on Midway and sure enough did show up right and and so um while the Japanese thought that they were mounting a surprise attack on Midway uh they were not the Americans knew that the attack was coming and that was um a large part as to why um the the US Navy won the Battle of Midway right so you know again the challenge was we have we have all this data coming in all

[9:56] this information coming in but what does it really mean okay it's it's it's very foggy we're not necessarily looking at it and analyzing it the same way that our competitor is okay so how do we put the DAT the information together in a way that we can be you know reasonably sure or as sure as possible that the intelligence uh assessment we're making of our competitor actually aligns with what our competitor is planning to do so um you know it it this is why it's

[10:35] important to obtain information from multiple sources if possible okay um and it may be necessary to sort of you know test things out in some way to see if the conclusions that you've drawn are in fact uh do in fact appear to be valid okay so um in in trying to deal with this challenge of the inherent un uncertainty that comes with dealing with intelligence the we want to be able to as well as possible properly properly interpret the information we get and

[11:11] then hopefully test it out somehow okay so that's that's sort of dealing with it in Step number one step number two assuming we're reasonably confident that we've interpreted the information we have well okay we're still going to be uncertain about the our competitor's intentions so um let's say for example um that we've gotten some information about um the financial state

[11:46] of our competitor and looking at it it it it's it appears to indicate that in fact our competitor is is in bad financial condition and so we know we we look for um additional information to either um refute or or verify our interpretation okay and let's say we we find some additional information that makes it look like okay yeah I think we've interpreted this correctly um our our competitor has some some bad financial problems okay well great so

[12:22] now we've interpreted it uh well um but that still doesn't tell us what are competitor is looking to do about it okay are they looking are are they looking to recapitalize their business are they looking to sell their business are they looking to just close their business and e exit the market or maybe exit a particular line of business that isn't going well and focus their attention on another part of the business that's doing well merely because we have again a reasonably accurate

[12:58] interpretation of data that we've gathered intelligence that we've gathered that doesn't mean that we're going to be clear as to what our competitor is going to do about it okay and it's when we start looking to determine our competitor's intentions that we start to really reap the value of intelligence okay it's all it's all fine and well to know what's going on with our competitor but what really matters is what actions are they

[13:35] going to take because those will start to have at least potentially a direct impact on our business so let's say for example that um because of the this competitor's financial difficulties they're considering you know exiting a particular area of of of their business and and that that happens to be one of our Prime areas of competition well if we know that that's their intention then we have an opportunity to ramp ourselves

[14:10] up in that area to potentially take over the market share that our competitor is withdrawing from okay and if we can figure that out before other competitors in the market figure it out we can have an an advantage we can have a jump on gearing up our marketing our production whatever it is that we need to do to take advantage of that opportunity okay um but here in lies one of the inherent risks what if

[14:45] we you know make a mistake in assessing our competitor intentions what if they decide that for the long-term viability of their business this area where they're not doing well really has the the greatest potential longterm okay and so while they have these other areas of their business that appear to be more profitable now they look at and they say Well they're profitable now but a year two years five years down the road these are not going to have any meaning and what really is

[15:22] going to have meaning or what not not going to have not meaning they're not going to have any value and so what really has value is this area we're struggling with so if we really are thinking about long-term success what we need to do is deemphasize these areas and focus more fully on this area where we're you know we're not doing so well because because again that is the that is where the long-term value and opportunity is uh in in this industry right and so here you are thinking well they're going to exit that area because they're not doing well in it and so you gear up for a big expansion meanwhile

[15:58] the company really intends to focus even more so on that and now you're coming you know in a head-to-head clash with with uh you know a competitor that's you know doubling down if you will on that particular area so the uncertainty of the competitors intentions can have a material impact on our business uh depending on how uh on what we assess the competitor's inent intentions to be and how we respond to our assessment of the competitor's

[16:34] intentions right so um again just like we want to look for confirming data confirming uh information um when we're interpreting um the uh um the situation of a competitor we also want to look for confirming information as to what our competitors intentions maybe okay um and and it's um you know it's it's easy to get to get fooled um because I'm I'm you probably have heard

[17:10] of something called confirmation bias so um you know the decision that we might make if we were in our competitor's place we naturally assume okay well so this is what we would do so this is what the competitor would do except for not necessarily right different people respond to different challenges in a different way so what we want to look at is um perhaps some additional information based on how our competitors have responded to challenges in the past

[17:47] okay so maybe the the competitor has had um financial troubles um in the past right so um how what did they do then did they double down on the area where they're having trouble and and and sort of push through it or did they withdraw knowing that you know past behavior isn't necessarily indicative of future Behavior okay but it you know people tend to respond um you know in similar ways um and so you know it's it maybe

[18:24] it's it's more likely um than not that they'll resp respond the same way this time than they did last time you know again we might look at if they've had if they faced challenges five times in the past has their response been consistent in how they've um you know dealt with that particular challenge if it has then perhaps we're more certain that they're going to respond the same way on the other hand right having you know try maybe five times to respond to various challenges and still finding themselves in trouble maybe this is the time when

[19:00] they're going to break the mold and go in a different direction right so those are the kinds of things that we need to consider when we deal with the uncertainty of our competitor's intentions okay next okay once we're reasonably certain of a competitor's intentions right or we think we are we can't be sure that we're not being actively deceived right so let's say we actually somehow get a hold of a strategic planning document for a

[19:36] competitor how do we know that it's genuine okay so again using a a military historical um example uh for the um invasion of Europe that that was planned um in 1944 so um um General Eisenhower decided that The Invasion would take place on the Normandy beaches okay now that was a an interesting decision because the poal was closer and a more logical point to

[20:13] invade and in fact it was Hitler's belief that the Allies would attack at the PO ofal in order to um reinforce Hitler's incorrect um assessment of the Allies intentions um the Allies built a whole disinformation campaign around General Patton leading a an in a an invasion at the pot

[20:48] ofal so even as dday was launched on the Normandy beaches and um I believe it was raml was calling for reinforcements to be pulled from the poal to reinforce the Normandy beaches Hitler was convinced that the that the Normandy invasion was a faint and that the real invasion was going to come at at the pot of Cal and so he wouldn't let those forces be moved right much to the benefit of the invading allies who you

[21:26] know could could face uh I mean the the the the German defensive force was strong enough but they didn't have to face additional reinforcements right so um Hitler was you know reasonably certain about where the Allies were going to invade and in order to keep him certain right the Allies deceived him so the same thing can happen in the business World okay um a company may decide they want to go in a in a particular direction or they have a certain intention with regard to dealing with a problem or dealing with an

[22:01] opportunity right but they don't want the competition to know that and so they may purposely put out information to fool their competition okay you know you said wow that's that's pretty brutal Hey listen you know business is is a tough uh environment so um you know that's that's the way it is and with with things like social media it's much easier to do today than it ever was before because you can spread all kinds of information and there's you know it can see if it's coming through um you know normal normal social media channels

[22:37] it can seem um absolutely genuine and so you know why wouldn't we believe this okay so um again the the the sort of next level of challenge of dealing with the challenge of the uncertainty of intelligence is um the sort of Counter Intelligence that our competitors might use in order to um draw us in a direction that actually is not good for us leaving them you know with the field clear to take advantage of the opportunity that they're

[23:13] pursuing okay yeah we're doing well on time all right so next is the irony okay so this doesn't necessarily build on the previous three but it's it's a frustration in dealing with the challenge of intelligence so it may be we've gathered great information we have analyzed it well we have accurately assessed our competitor's intention and because we've done such a

[23:49] good job with intelligence but are we've done such a good job with intelligence and and then the competitor finds out that were aware of their plans and so they cancel them right and it doesn't and it looks like oh my gosh we've completely massed what's going on here how could that possibly be and yet the the irony is we absolutely accurately assessed what the competition was doing in fact we did it so well that they realized that what they were planning on doing wasn't going to work out and so

[24:25] they canceled their plans and decided to go in a you know a different direction so and and we won't necessarily know that right it'll look to us like a complete intelligence failure okay um and yet um it it may be that um indeed the intelligence our intelligence operation was so good that we force the competition um into essentially from a business perspective anyway retrieve right and and of course in in in you

[25:01] know in a military standpoint I mean it's hard to know where um you know something like that is because you know we may have been anticipating that a particular battle was going to take place in a p in a particular location and it doesn't does that mean that um we were wrong in assessing where the enemy was going to attack um no it's just I mean it it I mean it could be like the case with with the you know Hitler thinking the we're going to um attack at the pot of cal um however it could have been that um the competitor found out oh

[25:37] gosh they know what we're up to and so we we're going to cancel this operation because it's it's it's not going to work right so um sometimes we can do an absolutely great job with intelligence so well that in an Essence negates itself um and and so we're you know we're sort of back to square Z okay and it can be hard to know that that's in indeed what happened and so intelligence this this this um challenge of intelligence I'm going to go back to that

[26:12] slide okay Intelligence on a competitor is not as concrete as knowledge that challenge is everpresent okay there is no way to escape it even even if we like I said a few minutes ago even if we get a hold of a strategic document that our competitor has drawn up okay still we have no idea if if indeed it's genuine or if this is something you know they meant us to find um so that we would you know be misled okay so we're we're dealing in a

[26:48] a a consistently foggy environment okay and and the problem is we can think all the fog has cleared but we can't be certain that the fog is cleared because the enemy want or the enemy the compet competition wants us to think that the fog is cleared in order to mislead us even more even worse than we you know we might have otherwise misled ourselves so we deal in this um uncertain environment anytime we're stepping into the intelligence realm it's part of it's it's just part of the

[27:25] nature of of the game okay and um you know for for I think for some people maybe for many people it's part of the fun right trying to figure out what is the competition gonna do if if if if we make this move what is the competition gonna move right it's kind of like a chess game so um and and and sometimes we're gonna you know as the English say come a Cropper we're we're we're gonna completely um you know mess up um what what we thought we were uh what we thought we knew and all of that and and you know that's that's just the way it

[28:00] goes sometimes hopefully we won't make a so bad a decision that it has a significantly negative impact on our business right so we do I think want to be um prudent and not sort of you know betting the farm on intelligence right um we we we probably want to hedge our bets as you know as much as as we can um so that uh if it turns out we've been deceived or uh um I mean if if it turns out yeah we we've been deceived or or

[28:36] just our intelligent was so our intelligence was so good that the competitor changed their mind or it turns out we were not nearly as spoton about assessing our competitors's intentions as we thought we were or if we just you know flat out misinterpreted the information that we have right all of those are possibilities in going through the intelligence process and we have to keep those in mind um and yet in the end make our best decision about um how we're going to go forward in light

[29:11] of what we know about the competition okay so there you go that is um our our our our show today dealing with intelligence and we will continue with this subject next week um so I I think we've got another two shows on it to sort of wrap this up so uh thank you very much for joining me if you have any questions comments um criticisms please feel free to uh drop a comment in uh any of our social media Outlets they're all

[29:46] uh linked they they'll all be linked in the show notes once the episode posts you can always send me an email as well my email address is in there too happy to hear from you and tomorrow uh at 12:30 p.m. is my show people making money my guest is desama Gordon author filmmaker teacher uh yoga instructor um and she's going to talk about how to live a a centered valuable life of uh I mean to make your career I

[30:21] should say part of a centered valuable life and so I I you know encourage you to tune in tomorrow again 12:30 pm. Pacific time and um if you want to join us live just go to our event bright page you can get a free ticket and you can talk to uh dasama directly and then uh next week on Monday at 10: a is the next edition of trusts and Estates weekly our half hour show at 10 a.m. Pacific time dealing with interestingly enough trusts and estate so I I invite you to that and

[30:57] then 7 days from today we will be back for the next edition of business lessons from the military so I wish you a very good afternoon wonderful rest of the day and look forward to seeing you tomorrow and signing off Marie darling you are my bell all the