The WAY to WOW Shows
The 24-Episode Campaign: Execution 7
May 12, 2026
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[0:00] [music]

[0:01] >> And where are you going? What do you want? [music] Hello and welcome to business lessons from the military. I'm your host Kevin Bemel and I'm here every Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time to talk about military history, doctrine, and leadership practices and then distill from them lessons we can apply to our businesses and professional practices. So, today I'm continuing with our 24 24

[0:37] episode campaign. This is drawn from doctrine across all of the service branches and we're coming to the end of the second part of it, execution. This is execution episode number seven. This is the 15th episode, I believe, of the series. And we're going to be talking about the fog of war. So, if you have, you know, any familiarity with uh whether it's watching war movies,

[1:12] whether having been in the military, um you you've almost for sure heard this this idea called the fog of war. So, what it means is that during combat, uh commanders are making decisions with certainly less than and often times fairly minimal information. Now, that may sound ridiculous in in today's communication and information environment where we have we have satellites and we have the

[1:47] internet and we have you know, all sorts of intelligence assets, whether it's OSINT, open source intelligence, or whether it's um signals intelligence, all this kind all these different sources, still, nonetheless, uh to know what's going on on the battlefield, to know what's going on in another country, to know what's going on inside of the heads of the commanders of the enemy's forces, uh oftentimes it's virtually impossible to know. And And yet,

[2:24] to wait for perfect information is almost for sure going to be going Yeah, going to be be a case of losing the battle, losing the war. So, clarity is a luxury that just that military's just cannot afford is the bottom line, right? So, action is the requirement, and so, whether it's army, the navy, the air force, marines, well, whoever it is, they have to uh take action even though they they're they know that they don't

[3:00] know everything. So, so, uh the fact of the matter is, in in business as well as war, leaders rarely get complete, accurate, and timely information. So, conditions change, uh signals conflict, the situation evolves faster than the the analysis and analysts can keep up, and and still, decisions have to be made. Uh we can't just sit and do nothing, uh because to do so means that it most likely we're we're going to get bowled over. So,

[3:36] the fog of war, it's it's it's just the unavoidable uncertainty that surrounds every decision. It is a It is a condition. It is a fact of life. It's not something that is overcome or defeated. It is the environment that all of us live in all of the time. Okay? So, waiting per waiting for a perfect information or sometimes even better information is not caution. Often times it is risk. That sounds strange. Like, wait, how can waiting for better

[4:12] information be risky? And when And the answer is is is is if you wait too long, uh the opportunity passes or um whoever whoever you're competing against uh has and has taken the initiative is going to get to market ahead of you or is going to gain market share to the point where you're not going to be able to compete. So, in terms of the fog of war, this is a a concept that was articulated by Carl von Clausewitz in his book On War. Uh I I've

[4:49] talked about von Clausewitz's book uh in a prior episode, so I I invite you to um check check out previous episodes of Business Lessons from the Military. So, it describes the inherent uncertainty in conflict. So, commanders face uh incomplete intelligence, conflicting reports, both intelligence reports, but also reports coming from uh subordinate commanders in the field, uh after-action reports, etc. Also, there

[5:24] are rapidly changing conditions, and communications can get degraded. So, if you can if you can if we think about, for example, uh World War I where there was not wireless communication the way there is today. So, for various echelons to communicate, telephone wires had to be strung. So, they might be strung from the trenches in the front lines all the way back to uh wherever the command post was and from there on to uh higher echelons of authority.

[5:59] If a If a shell dropped and cut that telephone cable, communication was cut off. Now,

[6:08] >> [clears throat and cough]

[6:09] >> there might be multiple cables uh or multiple lines, telephone lines, um but at least it's partially degraded and so now a source of information has been cut off and the [clears throat] fog grows a little bit deeper. So, even basic facts like the enemy's position, the enemy's strength, the enemy's intent are often unclear. So, again, using another example, this this from uh from movies. So, uh it there's a um a fantastic John Wayne movie. Um I believe

[6:47] it's uh She Wore a Yellow Ribbon. And in in the [clears throat] movie, the a new commanding officer played by Henry Fonda shows up and he's intent on sort of taking the battle to the Indians despite having no experience in fighting Plains Indians. And so,

[7:10] >> [clears throat]

[7:10] >> they're out in the field and uh uh Henry Fonda says he says something about the where the enemy is because there's dust rising and whatever. And John Wayne says to him, "No, almost for sure that's that's uh children and squaws with ponies dragging sagebrush just kicking up a lot of dust. The warriors are probably somewhere else." Right? So, to even know where the enemy is can be difficult. The same is true in guerrilla warfare. And And by the way, I I used a movie example, but indeed those were

[7:46] taken from from historical uh historical records. So, it wasn't something that was made up uh for for the movies. So, even again, even basic information can be hard to come by uh or or it even if it's gathered has a you know, a not necessarily high degree of accuracy. Okay, so uh the reality of decision-making is

[8:21] that leaders cannot wait for clarity. So, they have to assess imperfect information, make decisions quickly, and adapt to new information as it emerges. And And hesitation creates its own risk. First of all, there's lost initiative, there's missed opportunities, and oftentimes there's increased vulnerability. So, sometimes the longer forces sit in one place, the more time it gives the enemy to frame shape its its action against it. And And so, now

[8:56] you're facing a more lethal force, a larger force, a more targeted force than you would have if you had moved. So, I I gave a couple of small examples of the fog of war. Uh probably the the great one of the great decisions made in the face of the fog of war was uh General Dwight Eisenhower's decision to launch D-Day uh during World War II. So, on It was originally going to be launched on June 5th, but the weather was was not good enough to be able to do the amphibious landings. And uh

[9:33] Eisenhower convened a meeting with meteorologists and commanders and such and the meteorologist thought that there was a reasonable chance the weather would be better on June 6th. And so Eisenhower chose to delay it that one day, but he also he also knew that if he if he didn't go on June 6th, the opportunity to go wouldn't come around for another month because of changing tides etc. And so he made the decision that that D-Day was going to happen on

[10:08] June 6th. Not knowing for sure whether the weather would cooperate, whether the seas would be so choppy that amphibious landings would be highly degraded if not impossible. And and he even went so far as to write sort of a mea culpa communicate to the press in the event that the invasion did not work, accepting full responsibility for having made the decision to launch it on June 6th. Now of course in the event it was successful

[10:43] >> [clears throat]

[10:44] >> and it turned out to be one of the great just gutsiest decisions that a military commander has has ever made in in the history of the world. So

[10:56] >> [clears throat]

[10:57] >> this is the kind of now obviously D-Day in World War II the stakes were enormous. In business we we don't have those kinds of existential stakes in terms of lives of people. However, there are times when we may need to make decisions where the existence of of the company is could be at stake and and whichever way we make the decision like if we make the decision to launch an initiative It it could be that

[11:32] >> [clears throat]

[11:32] >> that initiative fails, the company uh you know loses its last chance. So, you look at Spirit Airlines, which which recently closed down. So, you know, there were probably opportunities for it for the leadership there to make certain decisions that might have staved off Spirit Airlines closing. And and perhaps, I'm just speculating. I don't I don't know this for a fact, but perhaps if they had made more timely decisions about certain things, uh they they would have been

[12:07] able to survive. So, perhaps for example, if they had decided to scale down operations more aggressively, um

[12:16] >> [clears throat]

[12:17] >> they they could have scaled down losses, and perhaps they could have weathered the storm as a smaller as a smaller airline. Or perhaps if they had maybe decided to convert into uh a a commuter airline operating operating under another airline's umbrella, um the way smaller airlines do where where they're essentially flying for American or United, even though they're a separate company. They're branded as American or United. You know, who who knows?

[12:47] >> [clears throat]

[12:48] >> A complex scenario, uh but but but businesses um face these these same businesses can face an existential situation, um just just in you know, probably not in terms of lives lost, but in terms of the business surviving. So,

[13:07] >> [clears throat]

[13:08] >> businesses do struggle with uncertainty. It is the nature of human existence. So, uncertainty appears in incomplete market data, in evolving changing customer behavior, in technological change and disruption, and in competitive ambiguity. So,

[13:29] >> [clears throat]

[13:30] >> ask a business ask a company what business is it in, that alone can be a difficult question to answer, but the answer to that question also is important in understanding who are their competitors, what are the market forces that they face, etc. etc., right? So, leaders often respond by delaying decisions and seeking more data and avoiding commitments even though by doing so they may lose a competitive advantage. And

[14:06] so, while delaying may create a sense of control, that that it's a false sense of control because there while we can control many things within our organizations, we cannot control the greater economy, we cannot control market forces. And so, um when we delay, opportunities pass, competitors move first, and now and and even and then momentum may be lost, and now the business is sliding down, whereas if it had it been more assertive and and and uh

[14:42] you know, dealt with the uncertainty, the fog of business, if you will, more effectively, it would be in a much better position. So,

[14:52] >> [clears throat and cough]

[14:53] >> the hidden risk of waiting is that often waiting feels safer, even though it it it is often the riskiest option. So, costs of delay can include eroding market position, if not lost mark you know, overall lost market position, slower execution cycles, operational indecision that then stymies the the organization in a broader way, and finally reduced confidence from teams who who are seeing opportunity, but

[15:28] they're not able to take advantage of it, and so they they become demoralized, and

[15:36] >> [clears throat]

[15:36] >> and then the next time there's an opportunity for the company to advance, they're just not as assertive in doing so, and so the prob- the the the problem compounds to the point where a company really falls behind. And it's happened countless times. It's If you look at a company like IBM or Kodak or uh Xerox, these are all companies that had hugely dominant market positions, but because they delayed and delayed in dealing with technological change, they

[16:13] have fallen far behind. Kodak probably the one most precipitously. It is essentially irrelevant in in the photography industry today. Uh but but IBM, too, was once the dominant computer maker in the United States. Now it is mostly a computer services company, right? And and has completely lost its its you know, any kind of foothold in in hardware, really. All right, so the market the market does not reward analysis. It

[16:50] rewards timely action, and so that's how we have to build our businesses. So, I have five thoughts on how to do this. Let's let's let's take a look at the first one. And this this is a tough one.

[17:03] >> [clears throat]

[17:03] >> I I I you know, just as I was reviewing my notes this morning for the show, thinking, you know, are are are people really going to do this? Well, so here's the reality. We have to decide with an appropriate percentage of information. That may be 70%. It may be 75%. For sure, it's not 100% or even 95% very unlikely to be 90%. I you know, maybe in a very fortunate situation, we can make a decision with

[17:40] 80% information. Okay, but it's probably most decisions are going to be made when we have 70 to 75% of the information that we think we need to make the decision. Right? That's just the reality of the fog of business. So, it's just unrealistic to wait for full information. So, what we need to do is define what it what does enough information look like? Okay? So, I'm dealing with this right now in with with my colleagues at a company I oversee as an asset to one of

[18:16] the estates I handle and I'm trying to get them comfortable with this this idea that the decision has to be made with insufficient information. There is not going to be sufficient information. Okay? And

[18:33] >> [clears throat]

[18:33] >> we have to accept that uncertainty and we need to prioritize uh speed with or we need to not prioritize. We need to combine speed with discipline. Right? So, timely a timely decision is going to outperform a perfect decision made too late, especially since there really is no such thing as a perfect decision. So, the the weightier the decision, okay, the the the more important this question of what percentage of the of information

[19:09] do I need to have to make the decision. But, in any event, we need to make that assessment, okay? So, that's not That's number one. Let's take a quick break and we'll come back for some more.

[19:23] >> [clears throat]

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[20:02] or visit magnumprops.com. Okay. So, next, we need to build reversible decisions. And keep in mind and keep in mind that not every decision is permanent or needs to be permanent, okay? So, we we need to be able to distinguish between which decisions are reversible and which are irreversible. And if at all possible, craft how we run our companies

[20:38] to have more reversible than irreversible decisions. And then, we need to move quickly to revise reversible ones. Okay, and keep that keep that flexibility. And we need to also we we need to work with our teams so that they understand the reversibility or really reversibility is probably the wrong the changeability of decisions. And they they need to get comfortable

[21:13] with the fact that once a decision is made, it's not made for all time. It's made based on what we know right now, and as more information comes in, we're we we may very well change the decision, update it. Now the the you know, the the information has changed, some of the assumptions may have changed, and so now we're we we may make some modifications to our plan, right? And then

[21:42] >> [clears throat]

[21:42] >> we should slow down only when the consequences are permanent. Okay? So, if we if we take a situation where uh let's say we're spending a very large amount of money on a particular initiative. And if we spend it on that initiative, we're not going to be able to mount some other initiative. Maybe maybe a we're going to we're going to spend the money on a product launch. And if a new product launch, I should say. And if we do that, we're not going to be able to support existing products

[22:18] from a marketing standpoint as well as we did before. Well, that's that's a fairly permanent decision depending on how we allocate the spend. So, if we have to allocate a lot of money up front before we even launch the new product, so that's a fairly un-reversible decision, right? So, is there a way that

[22:43] >> [clears throat]

[22:43] >> launching this new product can be done where we can minimize the upfront spend, and that [snorts] way we can change we can alter our spending plans as we see how the launch campaign is working out, Right? And maybe it's possible. Now, we're probably going to have some trade-offs. The campaign might potentially be more effective if more money is spent up front. Okay? Maybe we're going to get higher production value on commercials

[23:19] or or whatever we're going to do. Okay? So, we need to weigh that against the irreversibility of spending that money. Right? And this this is the fog of business. Right? These are the issues with which we have to wrestle, and we need to we need to not only wrestle with them, but make sure that all our team members understand and they and they they are a part of they they have buy-in into how the overall plan is working. Right? So, the more flexibility we can build into

[23:54] decisions, the less the risk the less risk there is. Okay, next. We need to create feedback loops. So, decisions need to evolve as new information comes in. So, in that case, we need to monitor outcomes in real time. We need to and we need to adjust based on on on those results. Okay? So, let's go back to that example of launching a new product. So, we need to carefully monitor in real

[24:30] time how the launch is going. How are consumers accepting the product? How how is from an accounting standpoint, how is the pricing affecting financial results? Okay? Are we are we able to maintain profitability as as the launch continues. Right? And or are we were we planning on there being you know somewhat of a loss at the initial launch to get it out there

[25:05] and then plan to perhaps scale down marketing as as consumer awareness increases and so that's how we're going to get to profitability. Whatever our plan is, we need to monitor that in real time. Are we able to start scaling down that marketing spend so that we we are able to move toward profitability on on on schedule or more quickly or maybe it's going to be not as fast as we had hoped. So we want to we want to analyze that as things are going on and that means a a whole of company effort

[25:42] in order to do that. So and and and to the extent that we're not staying on track, how can we adjust the the the launch, how can we adjust the marketing, how can we adjust the targeting, the the consumer targeting in order to improve the launch and you know, improve the chances that it will be successful, right? And so we need to constantly be refining our direction, okay? Every part of it and and all the members of the team need to be engaged in this effort,

[26:17] okay? So learning reduces uncertainty over time and so we want to be consistently learning. Next,

[26:28] >> [clears throat]

[26:28] >> and you've seen this come up in a number of the both um strategy and execution episodes that I've done. It really is I think one of the most crucial lessons that businesses can learn from the military and that is empower decentralized decision-making. So centralized decisions, centralized control slows down responses. So, what we want to do is push decisions closer to the problem. And that means

[27:04] pushing it down the chain of command. Okay, I've I've mentioned this a number of times on the show. In the Marine Corps, they call it the strategic corporal. That's the lowest non-commissioned officer uh that that is in the Marine Corps. It's a very junior person. He may be in a you know, 20 to 22 years old. Um in in some cases perhaps even a little bit younger than that. And and yet that that corporal is closest to the front lines uh with with his uh rifle team or with

[27:40] his he he maybe he's you know, a a deputy platoon commander or something like that. And he's the one that's actually doing the leading the fighting, right? And and that's where we want him to be making decisions because he's got the most information cuz he's right there. If he were to have to send that information all the way back to company headquarters or battalion headquarters or or even farther back, division headquarters, he's not going to be able to be effective, right? And so, the same

[28:16] thing is true of our businesses. We we want to push decision-making down as low as possible so that people with the most most information, the most timely information can be acting for the good of our business. Right, so

[28:34] >> [clears throat]

[28:34] >> as long as teams understand the intent of leadership, they can act independently better, okay? So, we need to we as leaders need to learn to trust local judgement. Now, this could be, you know, you have a company where headquartered here in the United States, but you have a team in another country, Europe, Asia, wherever, right? They are far more likely to have the knowledge necessary to be successful in their market than people back in the United

[29:10] States. And so, decision-making needs as much decision-making as possible possible needs to be delegated to people in those, you know, in those other markets, right? So, so, speed requires distributed authority so that these decisions can be made quickly and effectively. Okay, next.

[29:36] >> [clears throat]

[29:37] >> And this is this is the last point I have in this. Train teams to operate in ambiguity. So, just like in the military, we train, we do field training, we do all kinds of exercises to see how things are going to work before we get into actual combat, we can do the same thing in business. So, we can develop people's skills to deal with uncertainty, okay? And we can do that by running scenario-based exercises. Maybe take a

[30:14] half day in the company to do a mock product launch, okay? People may enjoy it. Make it fun. Or maybe do, you know, do a two-day retreat where again, you model a product launch or model a service launch or model whatever it is that you're contemplating doing. See how it works out, okay? Being able to practice without you know, without the uh pressure of it being, you know, real time can give

[30:50] people a sense of a better sense of how to operate when they're doing the actual launch, when they're doing the actual activity. You say, "Well, gosh, that's a lot of money." Well, maybe, okay, on the other hand if you're if you're considering a very costly marketing campaign or product or new product or service launch. So, how much more will it cost to do a practice run on some of the crucial aspects of it, like testing the communication feedback loop? Like determining

[31:25] uh you know, how teams are going to interact. Those are Those can be so crucial to information and flow and decision-making. It It It could very well be worth the cost to test them out in advance. So,

[31:42] >> [clears throat]

[31:42] >> you can expose your teams to imperfect data and then create a reward system for decisive action that, you know, maybe it didn't even necessarily lead to the desired result, but to the extent that you want your teams acting decisively on imperfect information, this is a way to reinforce that lesson. So, confidence comes from experience under uncertainty. So, to the to the extent that that can be practiced

[32:17] and trained, you'll be better off. Okay, so the leadership challenge to the fog of war it's it's never removed. It's navigated, okay? If you've ever been driving, for example, in the Central Valley of California, we have they have we have something called tule fog. It's unbelievably thick fog. And I I've been in it where you you you're driving on Interstate 5, and it is so thick the fog is so thick I can't I couldn't see beyond the front of the hood of my car.

[32:52] It's It can be very frightening. Right? You can't stop, okay? Because some car will or a truck will come up behind you and run you down. And in some cases it's difficult to even navigate off to the side of the road. So, you just have to be very diligent in navigating this tule fog. That is the same that that the same is true of the fog of war and the fog of business. It's not removed, okay? It's navigated. Have to be gotten through. So, leaders have to balance speed with accuracy. They

[33:27] need to balance um confidence with humility. And they need to balance action and adjustment. And I want to highlight one of those six things uh uh again, and that is humility. So, one of the reasons for [snorts] socializing this issue with your people is so they realize that their input is valued, and that whatever decision you make as a leader is subject

[34:02] to change, and and and you're not going to be too proud to make an adjustment, especially if you're brought some particularly timing timely information that could really mean the difference between success or failure, okay? So, you you know, we can't say to people, "Well, I'm humble. Blah blah blah blah blah." We have to show them that we have humility, okay? So, leaders must accept some decisions will be wrong. And that not deciding is often worse than making a wrong decision because not

[34:39] deciding causes stasis that makes making a decision ever harder the longer it's delayed. Okay? And And this is one of the things I emphasize to the people with whom I work. Sometimes we're going to make decisions. They're going to be wrong. I I've said it to clients in meetings when I'm giving a presentation or I should say to prospective clients when I'm giving a presentation seeking to get their business. I will say to them flat out, "I'm not always going to make right the correct decision. Okay? If you're looking for someone who's never going to

[35:14] make a mistake, please hire someone else. Okay? Because the nature of business is such that information is imperfect, sometimes decisions need to be made or often times decisions need to be made anyway, and some of those decisions are going to turn out to be wrong. The key is not or the issue is not whether the decisions are are wrong or not, it's that when they are wrong, what am I going to do? And what I'm going to do is make a plan to fix it as efficiently as

[35:49] possible and make sure at at to at if at all possible that you find out about the problem from me, not, you know, some other outside source. Okay? That is the effective way to deal with the fog of business um as as as it is dealing with the fog of war. Okay, so

[36:10] >> [clears throat]

[36:11] >> what this means for our organizations in fast-moving markets, which is pretty much every market today, data is abundant, but it's incomplete, and often times there's so much noise among the among the signals we're getting, the data we're getting, it's hard to sift out from it the wheat from the chaff to use an agricultural metaphor. So, and and then on top of that, conditions change rapidly. So, if we spend a lot of time sifting data that we got, you know,

[36:47] from a week ago, by the time we get it sifted out, it may not be relevant anymore because the market has shifted. So, organizations that wait, they fall behind, they lose initiative, and they end up reacting instead of leading. And so, organizations that learn faster, adapt more quickly, they shape outcomes and are more likely to be successful. And so, as with so many of these issues on execution, it requires discipline

[37:24] from leadership. So, leaders, they have we have to tolerate ambiguity. We have to commit despite uncertainty. And we need to adjust without ego. And finally, we need to maintain momentum. Oftentimes, if we can maintain momentum, even if a decision is sub-optimal, the momentum will still carry us through to success as opposed to delaying and then having to start up from you know, from a full stop. So, this requires courage, not

[38:02] just intelligence. And I I it's it's actually a little coincidental. If you saw my show Jiggers' Place last week, I talked about courage.

[38:13] >> [snorts]

[38:13] >> It is to my to my estimation the most important quality we can have because undergirding everything that we do is the courage to be authentic, to stick to our values, to take steps when we don't when we're unsure about the results in order to have the opportunity to to grow, to progress in our careers, in our lives. And so, this is why you if you've ever gotten an email from me, it's it's

[38:48] signed courage at all times. Okay? Because we we we have to be focused on being courageous as often as possible. So, closing reflection. The fog of war is not an obstacle to decision-making. It is the environment in which decisions are made. Okay? And that is true of the fog of business. It's not an obstacle to decision-making. It is merely being it is merely being um

[39:23] uh accurate in describing the business environment. So, leaders are not those who wait for clarity. They're those who act despite the absence of clarity. So, in war and in business, the advantage goes to those who move first and adapt fastest. That's how we That's how we deal with the fog of war, the fog of business, stay competitive, and keep our businesses going. So, uh I have a comment here. What is What is

[39:59] this about? Hopefully Hopefully that's I've clarified that uh in in in talking about the fog of war as part of executing um a business strategy. So, I thank you very much for joining me today. My slate of shows, Mondays at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time, Trust and Estates Weekly, Tuesdays like today at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time, Business Lessons from the Military, Wednesdays at 10:00 a.m. Pacific time, People Making Money, and then every other Thursday at 5:00 p.m. is my show, Jiggers His Place, where we

[40:34] relax, have a cocktail, and talk about non-financial issues. So, lots of times for us to be together during the week. If you have questions, comments, uh criticisms, just look below where you're viewing the show, you will see show notes with links to all of my social media and an email address. Feel free to I always like to hear your comments. I'm happy to respond to your emails. And if you are not a subscriber, uh please consider clicking that subscribe button. Uh again, whether you're on watching this on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcast, I would would love to have you

[41:12] be a subscriber and that way you'll know every time a new episode drops. So, again, thank you so much for joining me today. Wishing you a wonderful rest of the day and signing off as I always do. Marie Darling, you are my bell. Courage, everyone.